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An optimal early warning system for currency crises under model uncertainty

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  • Mamdouh Abdelmoula M.Abdelsalam
  • Hany Abdel-Latif

Abstract

This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from individual models allowing for time-varying weights. Taking Egypt as a case study and focusing only on currency crises, our findings show that combined forecast (EW- and DMA-based EWS), to account for uncertainty, perform better than other competing models in both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.

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  • Mamdouh Abdelmoula M.Abdelsalam & Hany Abdel-Latif, 2020. "An optimal early warning system for currency crises under model uncertainty," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(3), pages 99-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:20:y:2020:i:3:p:99-107
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    1. Maria Alina Carataș & Elena Cerasela Spătariu & Raluca Andreea Trandafir, 2020. "Embracing Uncertainty During the Crisis," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 38-43, August.

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