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Measuring the size of the hidden economy in Trinidad & Tobago, 1973-1999

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  • Alain Maurin
  • Sandra Sookram
  • Patrick Kent Watson

Abstract

In this paper, an attempt is made to measure the hidden economy of Trinidad & Tobago over the period 1973-1999, within the Structural Cointegrating VAR (SCVAR) framework. Using a Tanzi-type currency demand approach as a starting point, a multiple equation SCVAR model is estimated that contains two long-run relationships linking the demand for currency with other variables. The model is evaluated on the basis of its persistence profiles, its impulse responses and other statistical criteria. It is solved using a Gauss-Siedel algorithm and is used to establish that the size of the hidden economy rose from a low of about 14% of measured GDP in the early 1970s to a high of 36% in 1981, and is currently about 20% of measured GDP. Hidden economic activity is also found to be highly positively correlated with activity in the regular economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Maurin & Sandra Sookram & Patrick Kent Watson, 2006. "Measuring the size of the hidden economy in Trinidad & Tobago, 1973-1999," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 321-341.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:20:y:2006:i:3:p:321-341
    DOI: 10.1080/10168730600879406
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Ebrima A Faal, 2003. "Currency Demand, the Underground Economy, and, Tax Evasion—The Case of Guyana," IMF Working Papers 2003/007, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    3. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    4. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 1998. "A structural cointegrating VAR approach to macroeconometric modelling," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 8, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    6. Karl M. Bennett, 1995. "Economic decline and the growth of the informal sector: The Guyana and Jamaica experience," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 229-242, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hilaire, Alvin & Mahabir, Reshma, 2020. "The great exchange: Rapid demonetization in Trinidad and Tobago," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    2. Nguyen Thai Hoa, 2019. "How large is Vietnam's informal economy?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 81-100, February.
    3. Imamoglu, Hatice, 2021. "The role of financial development on the underground economy in regards to Europe’s 2020 strategy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    4. Yallwe, Hagos Alem & Buscemi, Antonino, 2011. "Money laundry and financial development," MPRA Paper 32219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sarsen Zhanabekov, 2022. "Robust determinants of the shadow economy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1017-1052, October.
    6. Imamoglu, Hatice, 2017. "Estimating the roles of financial sector development and international trade openness in underground economies: Evidence from the European Union," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-50, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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