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Does defence expenditure deter economic growth in Turkey? A cointegration analysis

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Listed:
  • Erdal Karagol
  • Serap Palaz

Abstract

This paper investigates a series of unit root, cointegration and causality tests to ascertain the direction of causality between the growth of GNP and defence expenditure in Turkey for the years 1955-2000. The main conclusion is that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between GNP and defence expenditures. Furthermore, the short run causality test indicates that there is a unidirectional causality between variables, from defence expenditure to economic growth. In order to see the effect of a shock, we employed impulse response analyses. The results show that GNP decreased during the period then output finally recovered from the initial shock to defence expenditures.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdal Karagol & Serap Palaz, 2004. "Does defence expenditure deter economic growth in Turkey? A cointegration analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 289-298.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:3:p:289-298
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690320001608908
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Dunne & Eftychia Nikolaidou & Dimitrios Vougas, 2001. "Defence spending and economic growth: A causal analysis for Greece and Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 5-26.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Defence; Cointegration; Turkey; JEL codes: C22; C32; H56;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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