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The effects of wind generation capacity on electricity prices and generation costs: a Monte Carlo analysis

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  • Lynch
  • John Curtis

Abstract

We use Monte Carlo analysis to examine the potential of increased renewable generation to provide a hedge against variability in energy prices and costs. Fuel costs, electricity demand and wind generation are allowed to vary and a unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithm is employed to produce cost-minimizing generation schedules under different levels of installed wind capacity. Increased wind capacity reduces the mean and the variance of production costs but only the variance of electricity prices. Wind generators see their market revenues increase while consumer payments and fossil generator profits do not considerably vary as wind capacity increases. Risk aversion is captured by considering the conditional value-at-risk for both consumers and producers. The optimal level of wind generation increases as risk aversion increases due to the potential of wind to act as a hedge against very high electricity prices in high fuel price scenarios.

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  • Lynch & John Curtis, 2016. "The effects of wind generation capacity on electricity prices and generation costs: a Monte Carlo analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 133-151, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:2:p:133-151
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1076145
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    2. Curtis, John & Lynch, Muireann Á. & Zubiate, Laura, 2016. "The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on electricity markets: A case study on Ireland," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 186-198.
    3. Lynch, Muireann A, 2017. "Re-evaluating Irish energy policy in light of brexit," Research Notes RN20170201, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. McQuinn, Kieran & Foley, Daniel & O'Toole, Conor, 2017. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2017," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20172, march.
    5. Seljom, Pernille & Lindberg, Karen Byskov & Tomasgard, Asgeir & Doorman, Gerard & Sartori, Igor, 2017. "The impact of Zero Energy Buildings on the Scandinavian energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 284-296.
    6. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2021. "The impact of variable renewable energy technologies on electricity markets: An analysis of the Turkish balancing market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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