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Estimating a fiscal reaction function: the case of debt sustainability in Brazil

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  • Luiz de Mello

Abstract

This article reviews recent trends in fiscal performance in Brazil, estimates fiscal reaction functions for the consolidated public sector and different levels of government, and tests for the sustainability of the public debt dynamics. The empirical analysis, based on monthly data for the period 1995-2004, suggests that all levels of government react strongly to changes in indebtedness by adjusting their primary budget surplus targets. In addition, the central government appears to follow a spend-and-tax policy: changes in revenue are affected strongly by expenditure. About two-thirds of changes in primary spending are offset by higher revenue over the longer term. Institutions are also found to matter for fiscal sustainability. The responsiveness of the sub-national fiscal stance to indebtedness, as well as that of central government revenue to changes in primary spending, appears to have become stronger after 1998, when ceilings on indebtedness were introduced.

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  • Luiz de Mello, 2008. "Estimating a fiscal reaction function: the case of debt sustainability in Brazil," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 271-284.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:3:p:271-284
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500461873
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    1. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2017. "A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 795, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    2. Charl Jooste & Mr. Alfredo Cuevas & Ian C. Stuart & Philippe Burger, 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and the fiscal reaction function for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2011/069, International Monetary Fund.
    3. STOIAN, Andreea, 2012. "The Study Of Fiscal Sustainability For The Case Of Overindebted European Countries," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 16(4), pages 43-62.
    4. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: A meta-analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Fournier, Jean-Marc & Fall, Falilou, 2017. "Limits to government debt sustainability in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 30-41.
    6. Sakuragawa, Masaya & Sakuragawa, Yukie, 2020. "Government fiscal projection and debt sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
    8. Ivantia S. Mokoginta & Ria Marisa Stephanie, 2015. "Structural breaks and fiscal sustainability of the Indonesian government budget," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 7(1), pages 33-47, April.
    9. Tari Lestari, 2014. "Can Indonesia’s Fiscal Policy be Sustained, with Exploding Debt?," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201415, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Nov 2014.
    10. Katia Berti & Eugeniu Colesnic & Cyril Desponts & Stephanie Pamies & Etienne Sail, 2016. "Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 028, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Philippe Burger & Krige Siebrits & Estian Calitz, 2015. "The public sector balance sheet and fiscal consolidation in South Africa," Working Papers 11/2015, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    12. Silva, Alexandre Manoel Angelo & Cândido Júnior, José Oswaldo, 2010. "É o mercado míope em relação á política fiscal brasileira?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(4), December.
    13. Luiz de Mello, 2007. "The Brazilian 'Tax War': The Case of Value-Added Tax Competition among the States," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 544, OECD Publishing.
    14. Hela Ben Hassine Khalladi, 2019. "Fiscal fatigue, public debt limits and fiscal space in some MENA countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1005-1017.
    15. Kayandabila, Yamungu & Manyama, Mulesi Kanyere, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and Debt Dynamic: Evidence from Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 1(2), July.
    16. Guillaume Bousquet & Christian Daude & Christine de la Maisonneuve, 2015. "Fiscal Decentralisation in Colombia: New Evidence Regarding Sustainability, Risk Sharing and “Fiscal Fatigue”," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1202, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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