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Hedging against bunker price fluctuations using petroleum futures contracts: constant versus time-varying hedge ratios

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  • Amir Alizadeh
  • Manolis Kavussanos
  • David Menachof

Abstract

The effectiveness of hedging marine bunker price fluctuations in Rotterdam, Singapore and Houston is examined using different crude oil and petroleum future contracts traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) in London. Using both constant and dynamic hedge ratios, it is found that in and out-of-sample hedging effectiveness is different across regional bunker markets. The most effective futures instruments for out of sample hedging of spot bunker prices in Rotterdam and Singapore are the IPE crude oil futures, while for Houston it is the gas oil futures. Differences in hedging effectiveness across regional markets are attributed to the varying regional supply and demand factors in each market. In comparison to other markets, the cross-market hedging effectiveness investigated in the bunker market is low.

Suggested Citation

  • Amir Alizadeh & Manolis Kavussanos & David Menachof, 2004. "Hedging against bunker price fluctuations using petroleum futures contracts: constant versus time-varying hedge ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(12), pages 1337-1353.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:12:p:1337-1353
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000176801
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    2. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Forecasting energy market volatility using GARCH models: Can multivariate models beat univariate models?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2167-2181.
    3. Alexandridis, George & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Kim, Chi Y. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 164-212.
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    5. Roar Adland & Haakon Ameln & Eirik A. Børnes, 2020. "Hedging ship price risk using freight derivatives in the drybulk market," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Valenti, Daniele & Manera, Matteo & Sbuelz, Alessandro, 2020. "Interpreting the oil risk premium: Do oil price shocks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Čech, František & Zítek, Michal, 2022. "Marine fuel hedging under the sulfur cap regulations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Gu, Yewen & Wallace, Stein W. & Wang, Xin, 2016. "Integrated maritime bunker management with stochastic fuel prices and new emission regulations," Discussion Papers 2016/13, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    9. Yewen Gu & Stein W. Wallace & Xin Wang, 2017. "The Impact of Bunker Risk Management on CO2 Emissions in Maritime Transportation Under ECA Regulation," Springer Optimization and Its Applications, in: Didem Cinar & Konstantinos Gakis & Panos M. Pardalos (ed.), Sustainable Logistics and Transportation, pages 199-224, Springer.
    10. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Kim, Jihun, 2019. "Crude oil price shocks and hedging performance: A comparison of volatility models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1132-1147.
    11. Bai, Xiwen & Kavussanos, Manolis G., 2022. "Hedging IMO2020 compliant fuel price exposure using futures contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    12. Sun, Xiaolin & Haralambides, Hercules & Liu, Hailong, 2019. "Dynamic spillover effects among derivative markets in tanker shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 384-409.
    13. Jiawei Ge & Mo Zhu & Mei Sha & Theo Notteboom & Wenming Shi & Xuefeng Wang, 2021. "Towards 25,000 TEU vessels? A comparative economic analysis of ultra-large containership sizes under different market and operational conditions," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(4), pages 587-614, December.
    14. Bai, Xiwen & Cheng, Liangqi & Iris, Çağatay, 2022. "Data-driven financial and operational risk management: Empirical evidence from the global tramp shipping industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Kunlapath Sukcharoen & Hankyeung Choi & David J. Leatham, 2015. "Optimal gasoline hedging strategies using futures contracts and exchange-traded funds," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(32), pages 3482-3498, July.
    16. Wang, Dong-Hua & Chen, Chung-Ching & Lai, Cheng-Sheng, 2011. "The rationale behind and effects of Bunker Adjustment Factors," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 467-474.
    17. Maitra, Debasish & Chandra, Saurabh & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2020. "Liner shipping industry and oil price volatility: Dynamic connectedness and portfolio diversification," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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