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Stylized facts on nominal term structure and business cycles: an empirical VAR study

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  • Tao Wu

Abstract

This paper examines the importance of various macroeconomic shocks in explaining the movement of the term structure of nominal bond yields in the post-war USA, as well as the channels through which such macro-shocks influence the yield curve, using a structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The results show that the monetary-policy and the aggregate-supply shocks are important determinants of the nominal term structure. Moreover, the monetary-policy innovations have a large but transitory effect on the nominal bond yields, primarily by changing the slope of the yield curve, and the aggregate-supply shocks from private sector have a more persistent effect on the level of the yield curve, but have little effect on the slope of the yield curve.

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  • Tao Wu, 2003. "Stylized facts on nominal term structure and business cycles: an empirical VAR study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 901-906.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:8:p:901-906
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684022000018204
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    1. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 1998. "Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: Evidence and theory," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 53-111, December.
    2. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. "Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-1882, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Tao, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1847-1875, October.
    2. Ronald Lange, 2005. "Determinants of the long-term yield in Canada: an open economy VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 681-693.
    3. Yifeng Yan & Ju'e Guo, 2015. "The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 415-441, August.
    4. Ronald H. Lange, 2013. "Monetary policy reactions and the exchange rate: a regime-switching structural VAR for Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 612-632, September.
    5. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    6. Ronald Lange, 2008. "A decomposition of the predictive content of the term structure for output growth in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1537-1545.
    7. Marco Matsumura & Ajax Moreira, 2011. "Assessing macro influence on Brazilian yield curve with affine models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1847-1863.
    8. ARANHA, Marcel Z. & MOURA, Marcelo L., 2008. "The impact of monetary policy on the yield curve in the Brazilian economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_157, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    9. Lange, Ronald H., 2014. "The small open macroeconomy and the yield curve: A state-space representation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-21.
    10. Luciano Vereda & Hélio Lopes & Jessica Kubrusly & Adrian Pizzinga & Taofik Mohammed Ibrahim, 2014. "Yield Curve Forecasts and the Predictive Power of Macro Variables in a VAR Framework," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 377-393.
    11. Lange, Ronald H., 2013. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: A dynamic latent factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 261-274.

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