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Weather biases in the NFL totals market

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  • Richard Borghesi

Abstract

I examine outcome predictability in the National Football League totals betting market using data from the 1984 through 2004 seasons. Results suggest that while weather is an important determinant of scoring, the market does not accurately incorporate the effects of adverse conditions into totals bet prices. Specifically, I demonstrate that heat, wind and rain reduce point production, and provide evidence that bettors underestimate this effect. I also present a betting strategy that accounts for expected weather conditions and produces an out-of-sample win rate significantly above the 52.38% profitability threshold.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Borghesi, 2008. "Weather biases in the NFL totals market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 947-953.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:18:y:2008:i:12:p:947-953
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100701335432
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
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    10. Golec, Joseph & Tamarkin, Maurry, 1991. "The degree of inefficiency in the football betting market : Statistical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 311-323, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas J. Murray, 2018. "Examining the Relationship Between Scheduling and the Outcomes of Regular Season Games in the National Football League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(5), pages 696-724, June.
    2. Corey A. Shank, 2019. "NFL betting market efficiency, divisional rivals, and profitable strategies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(4), pages 567-580, September.
    3. B. Jay Coleman, 2017. "Team Travel Effects and the College Football Betting Market," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(4), pages 388-425, May.

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