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Oil prices and their effect on potential output

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  • Angel Estrada
  • Pablo Hernández de Cos

Abstract

This article describes some of the mechanisms by which oil price fluctuations produce changes in the long-run growth of the economy. The analysis suggests that a (permanent) increase in oil prices can significantly reduce potential output. From an economic policy point of view, this effect may be more marked when competition in the product markets is low or when wage indexation is high; thus, reforms aiming to increase competition and improve wage-setting mechanisms help to reduce the negative effects of higher oil prices on long-run economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Angel Estrada & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2012. "Oil prices and their effect on potential output," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 207-214, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:207-214
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.572833
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    2. Finn, Mary G, 2000. "Perfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 400-416, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. KARGI, Bilal, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Prices On Inflation and Growth: Time Series Analysis In Turkish Economy For 1988:01-2013:04 Period," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(2), pages 29-36.
    2. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2016. "The impact of supply shocks on unemployment in Spain," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 107-112.
    3. Akinsola Motunrayo O. & Odhiambo N. M., 2022. "The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Growth in Middle-Income Oil-Importing Countries: A Non-Linear Panel ARDL Approach," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 29-48, September.
    4. Thomas Theobald & Peter Hohlfeld, 2017. "Why have the recent oil price declines not stimulated global economic growth?," IMK Working Paper 185-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Motunrayo O AKINSOLA & NM ODHIAMBO, 2020. "Oil Price And Economic Growth Of Oil-Importing Countries: A Review Of International Literature," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 129-140.

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