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Malthus to modernity: wealth, status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879

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  • Gregory Clark
  • Neil Cummins

Abstract

A key challenge to theories of long-run economic growth has been linking the onset of modern growth with the move to modern fertility limitation. A notable puzzle for these theories is that modern growth in England began around 1780, 100 years before there was seemingly any movement to limit fertility. Here we show that the aggregate data on fertility in England before 1880 conceals significant declines in the fertility of the middle and upper classes earlier. These declines coincide with the Industrial Revolution and are of the character predicted by some recent theories of long-run growth. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

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  • Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins, 2015. "Malthus to modernity: wealth, status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 3-29, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:28:y:2015:i:1:p:3-29
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-014-0509-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September.
    14. Neil Cummins, 2013. "Marital fertility and wealth during the fertility transition: rural F rance, 1750–1850," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(2), pages 449-476, May.
    15. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins, 2009. "Urbanization, Mortality, and Fertility in Malthusian England," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 242-247, May.
    16. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    17. Gregory Clark, 2007. "Introduction to A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World," Introductory Chapters, in: A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World, Princeton University Press.
    18. Horrell Sara & Humphries Jane, 1995. "The Exploitation of Little Children: Child Labor and the Family Economy in the Industrial Revolution," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 485-516, October.
    19. Masako Kimura & Daishin Yasui, 2012. "Public Policy and the Income-Fertility Relationship in Economic Development," KIER Working Papers 834, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    20. Charles F. Manski & Joram Mayshar, 2003. "Private Incentives and Social Interactions: Fertility Puzzles in Israel," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 181-211, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Youssouf Merouani & Faustine Perrin, 2022. "Gender and the long-run development process. A survey of the literature [Rethinking age heaping: A cautionary tale from nineteenth-century Italy]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(4), pages 612-641.
    2. Mathieu Lefebvre & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2023. "Counting the missing poor in pre-industrial societies," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(1), pages 155-183, January.
    3. Neil Cummins, 2022. "The hidden wealth of English dynasties, 1892–2016," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(3), pages 667-702, August.
    4. David de la Croix & Eric B. Schneider & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Childlessness, celibacy and net fertility in pre-industrial England: the middle-class evolutionary advantage," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 223-256, September.
    5. Jakob Madsen & Holger Strulik, 2023. "Testing unified growth theory: Technological progress and the child quantity‐quality tradeoff," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 235-275, January.
    6. Hu, Sijie, 2020. "Survival of the Confucians: social status and fertility in China, 1400-1900," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104040, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Holger Strulik, 2017. "Contraception And Development: A Unified Growth Theory," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(2), pages 561-584, May.
    8. Clark, Gregory & Cummins, Neil, 2016. "The Child Quality-Quantity Tradeoff, England, 1780-1880: A Fundamental Component of the Economic Theory of Growth is Missing," CEPR Discussion Papers 11232, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Tom S. Vogl, 2017. "Aggregating the Fertility Transition: Intergenerational Dynamics in Quality and Quantity," Working Papers vogl_intergen_dynamics.pd, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    10. Cummins, Neil, 2024. "Ethnic Wealth Inequality in England and Wales, 1858-2018," CEPR Discussion Papers 19398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Cummins, Neil & Clark, Gregory & Curtis, Matthew, 2019. "Twins Support Absence of Parity-Dependent Fertility Control in Pre-Transition Western European Populations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Francesco Cinnirella & Marc Klemp & Jacob Weisdorf, 2017. "Malthus in the Bedroom: Birth Spacing as Birth Control in Pre-Transition England," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 413-436, April.
    13. Jason Collins & Boris Baer & Ernst Juerg Weber, 2016. "Evolutionary Biology in Economics: A Review," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 291-312, June.
    14. Cummins, Neil, 2020. "The micro-evidence for the Malthusian system. France, 1670–1840," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    15. Fabio Mariani & Marion Mercier & Luca Pensieroso, 2023. "Left-handedness and economic development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 79-123, March.
    16. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins, 2019. "Randomness in the Bedroom: There Is No Evidence for Fertility Control in Pre-Industrial England," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1541-1555, August.
    17. David de la Croix & Eric B. Schneider & Jacob Weisdorf, 2017. ""Decessit sine prole" Childlessness, Celibacy, and Survival of the Richest in Pre-Industrial England," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2017001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    18. Gregory Ponthiere, 2024. "Fertility, heterogeneity, and the Golden Rule," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 26(1), February.
    19. Tom Vogl, 2017. "Aggregating the Fertility Transition: Intergenerational Dynamics in Quality and Quantity," NBER Working Papers 23081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Katharina Mühlhoff, 2022. "Darwin beats malthus: evolutionary anthropology, human capital and the demographic transition," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(3), pages 575-614, September.
    21. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins & Matthew Curtis, 2020. "Twins Support the Absence of Parity-Dependent Fertility Control in Pretransition Populations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(4), pages 1571-1595, August.
    22. Chiara Mussida & Dario Sciulli, 2023. "Childbirth and poverty in Europe: A dynamic bivariate approach," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(1), pages 34-59, March.

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