IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v49y2015i4p1173-1189.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?

Author

Listed:
  • Paulo Esteves
  • António Rua

Abstract

Traditionally, exports behavior is modeled only as a function of the foreign demand and the real exchange rate. However, it is by now widely acknowledged that these variables are not able to fully explain exports developments. This paper suggests considering domestic demand pressure as an additional variable, revisiting its economic rationale and assessing its empirical importance. In particular, we consider the Portuguese case and find that domestic demand developments are relevant for the short-run dynamics of exports. Moreover, it is found that this relationship is asymmetric, being stronger and more significant when domestic demand is falling than when it is increasing. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Paulo Esteves & António Rua, 2015. "Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1173-1189, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:49:y:2015:i:4:p:1173-1189
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-014-0908-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-014-0908-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-014-0908-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ray Barrell & Nigel Pain, 1997. "The Growth of Foreign Direct Investment in Europe," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 160(1), pages 63-75, April.
    2. Pereira, Alfredo M. & Gaspar, Vitor, 1999. "An Intertemporal Analysis of Development Policies in the EU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 799-822, December.
    3. Berman, Nicolas & Berthou, Antoine & Héricourt, Jérôme, 2015. "Export dynamics and sales at home," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 298-310.
    4. Faini, Riccardo, 1994. "Export supply, capacity and relative prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 81-100, October.
    5. Osbat, Chiara & Jochem, Alex & Özyurt, Selin & Tello, Patry & Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Micallef, Brian & Sideris, Dimitris & Papadopoulou, Niki & Ajevskis, Viktors & Krekó, Judit & Gaulier, Guillaume , 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
    6. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196, September.
    7. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    8. Luca David Opromolla & Alfonso A. Irarrazabal, 2008. "A Theory of Entry and Exit into Exports Markets," Working Papers w200820, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Impullitti, Giammario & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Opromolla, Luca David, 2013. "A theory of entry into and exit from export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 75-90.
    10. Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
    11. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    12. Sharma, Kishor, 2003. "Factors determining India's export performance," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 435-446, June.
    13. Filippo Di Mauro & Katrin Forster, "undated". "Globalisation and the competitiveness of the Euro area," Working Papers 5, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    14. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    15. John F. Henry & L. Randall Wray, 1998. "Economic Time," Macroeconomics 9811004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    17. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-277, August.
    18. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    19. repec:bla:econom:v:47:y:1980:i:188:p:443-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    21. JaeBin Ahn & Alexander McQuoid, 2013. "Capacity Constrained Exporters: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications," Working Papers 1301, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    22. A team of the Working Group on Econometric Modelling of the European System of Central Banks, 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
    23. Hubrich, Kirstin & Karlsson, Tohmas, 2010. "Trade consistency in the context of the Eurosystem projection exercises – an overview," Occasional Paper Series 108, European Central Bank.
    24. Renton, G A & Duffy, M, 1970. "A Model for Forecasting U.K. Exports to Primary Producers," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 383-405, November.
    25. Vannoorenberghe, G., 2012. "Firm-level volatility and exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 57-67.
    26. Paulo Esteves & Sónia Cabral, 2006. "Portuguese Export Market Shares: An Analysis by Selected Geographical and Product Markets," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    27. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    28. Schmitz, Martin & De Clercq, Maarten & Fidora, Michael & Lauro, Bernadette & Pinheiro, Cristina, 2012. "Revisiting the effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 134, European Central Bank.
    29. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    30. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Schnatz, Bernd, 2007. "Explaining and forecasting euro area exports: which competitiveness indicator performs best?," Working Paper Series 833, European Central Bank.
    31. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2013. "Exchange Rate Bands Of Inaction And Play-Hysteresis In German Exports—Sectoral Evidence For Some Oecd Destinations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 152-179, February.
    32. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    33. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
    34. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    35. Filippo Di Mauro & Katrin Forster, "undated". "Globalisation and the competitiveness of the Euro area," Working Papers 5, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    36. Artus, Jacques R., 1973. "The short-run effects of domestic demand pressure on export delivery delays for machinery," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 21-36, February.
    37. Amable, Bruno & Henry, Jerome & Lordon, Frederic & Topol, Richard, 1994. "Strong hysteresis versus zero-root dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 43-47.
    38. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth within Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1770-1786, November.
    39. Jurgen A. Doornik & Henrik Hansen, 2008. "An Omnibus Test for Univariate and Multivariate Normality," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 927-939, December.
    40. Schmitz, Martin & De Clercq, Maarten & Fidora, Michael & Lauro, Bernadette & Pinheiro, Cristina, 2012. "Revisiting the effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 134, European Central Bank.
    41. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-564, September.
    42. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "International trade in the presence of product differentiation, economies of scale and monopolistic competition : A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-340, August.
    43. Andrew Bernard & Joachim Wagner, 2001. "Export entry and exit by German firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 137(1), pages 105-123, March.
    44. Hubrich, Kirstin & Karlsson, Tohmas, 2010. "Trade consistency in the context of the Eurosystem projection exercises - an overview," Occasional Paper Series 108, European Central Bank.
    45. Soderbery, Anson, 2014. "Market size, structure, and access: Trade with capacity constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 276-298.
    46. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January.
    47. Blum, Bernardo S. & Claro, Sebastian & Horstmann, Ignatius J., 2013. "Occasional and perennial exporters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 65-74.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ansgar Belke & Anne Oeking & Ralph Setzer, 2014. "Domestic demand pressure and export dynamics – An empirical threshold model analysis for six euro area countries," EcoMod2014 6780, EcoMod.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Anne Oeking & Ralph Setzer, 2013. "Exports and Capacity Constraints – A Smooth Transition Regression Model for Six Euro Area Countries," ROME Working Papers 201313, ROME Network.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Oeking, Anne & Setzer, Ralph, 2015. "Domestic demand, capacity constraints and exporting dynamics: Empirical evidence for vulnerable euro area countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 315-325.
    4. Elena Bobeica & Paulo Esteves & António Rua & Karsten Staehr, 2016. "Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 107-125, February.
    5. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag, 2014. "Establishment heterogeneity, exporter dynamics, and the effects of trade liberalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 207-223.
    6. Laborda, Juan & Salas, Vicente & Suárez, Cristina, 2020. "Manufacturing firms’ export activity: Business and financial cycles overlaps!," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Impullitti, Giammario & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Opromolla, Luca David, 2013. "A theory of entry into and exit from export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 75-90.
    8. Belke, Ansgar & Oeking, Anne & Setzer, Ralph, 2015. "Exports and Capacity Constraints: Evidence for Several Euro Area Countries," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113228, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Fontanelli, Luca & Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro, 2023. "International trade and technological competition in markets with dynamic increasing returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Campbell, Douglas L., 2020. "Relative Prices and Hysteresis: Evidence from US Manufacturing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Styliani Christodoulopoulou & Olegs Tkacevs, 2014. "Measuring the Effectiveness of Cost and Price Competitiveness in External Rebalancing of Euro Area Countries: What Do Alternative HCIs Tell Us?," Working Papers 2014/06, Latvijas Banka.
    12. JaeBin Ahn & Alexander F. McQuoid, 2017. "Capacity Constrained Exporters: Identifying Increasing Marginal Cost," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1175-1191, July.
    13. Pişkin, Erhan, 2017. "Türkiye İhracatının Ölüm-Kalım Meselesi [The Matter of Survival for Turkish Exports]," MPRA Paper 81459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Laura M. Werner, 2020. "Hysteresis losses in the Preisach framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1249-1278, March.
    15. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 4, pages 89-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Paulo Soares Esteves & Miguel Portela & António Rua, 2022. "Does Domestic Demand Matter for Firms’ Exports?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 311-332, April.
    17. M. Padmaja & Subash Sasidharan, 2017. "Sunk Costs, Firm Heterogeneity, Export Market Entry and Exit: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(2), pages 367-393, June.
    18. Sérgio Kannebley Júnior & João Paulo Martins Baroni & Diogo de Prince, 2015. "Macro-Hysteresis Test for Brazilian Exports of Manufactured Products: A threshold Panel Approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 606-637, November.
    19. Dick Nuwamanya Kamuganga, 2012. "The Linkage between Outcome Differences in Cotton Production and Rural Roads Improvements - A Matching Approach," IHEID Working Papers 15-2012, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    20. Giordano, Claire & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2019. "Firm heterogeneity and trade in EU countries: a cross-country analysis," Occasional Paper Series 225, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exports; Domestic demand pressure; Error correction models; Asymmetry; C22; C50; F10;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:49:y:2015:i:4:p:1173-1189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.