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Forecasting exchange rates in transition economies: A comparison of multivariate time series models

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma
  • Jaroslava Hlouskova

Abstract

This article compares the accuracy of vector autoregressive (VAR), restricted vector autoregressive (RVAR), Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR), vector error correction (VEC) and Bayesian vector error correction (BVEC) models in forecasting the exchange rates for five Central and Eastern European currencies (Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Slovak Koruna and Slovenian Tolar) against the Euro and the US dollar. Among the specifications composing this battery of multivariate time series models, those with the smallest prediction error still fail to reject the test of equality of forecasting accuracy against the random walk model in short-term predictions, with the exception of the Slovenian Tolar/Euro exchange rate. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2004. "Forecasting exchange rates in transition economies: A comparison of multivariate time series models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 787-801, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:29:y:2004:i:4:p:787-801
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-004-0212-x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Wdowiński, 2011. "Model monetarny kursu równowagi złoty/euro: analiza kointegracyjna," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 67-86.
    2. Hamid Baghestani & Liliana Danila, 2014. "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Forecasting in the Czech Republic: Do Analysts Know Better than a Random Walk?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 282-295, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vector autoregression; cointegration; Bayesian methods; exchange rates; transition economies; C53; P33; C32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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