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The minimum wage, employment, and the AS-IF methodology: A forecasting approach to evaluating the minimum wage

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Wolfson

    (Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, Dartmouth College, Hanover, N.H. USA 03755)

  • Dale Belman

    (Michigan State University, School of Labor and Industrial Relations, 4th Floor, South Kedzie Hall, East Lansing, MI 48824-1032)

Abstract

Out-of-sample employment forecasts for 33 U.S. industries which are likely to be sensitive to the federal minimum wage are, more often than not, more accurate when information about the minimum wage is not taken into account. This is true even in instances where this information improves wage forecasts. When employment forecasts conditional on the minimum wage are better, the improvement is typically small. These results are invariant to the number of workers previously making less than the new minimum wage, and to the value of the minimum wage relative to industry average wages.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Wolfson & Dale Belman, 2001. "The minimum wage, employment, and the AS-IF methodology: A forecasting approach to evaluating the minimum wage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 487-514.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:26:y:2001:i:3:p:487-514
    Note: received: August 1999/Final version received: July 2000
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dale L. Belman & Paul Wolfson, 2010. "The Effect of Legislated Minimum Wage Increases on Employment and Hours: A Dynamic Analysis," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(1), pages 1-25, March.
    2. Loukas Karabarbounis & Jeremy Lise & Anusha Nath, 2022. "Minimum Wages and Labor Markets in the Twin Cities," NBER Working Papers 30239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. David Neumark & Peter Shirley, 2022. "Myth or measurement: What does the new minimum wage research say about minimum wages and job loss in the United States?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 384-417, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minimum Wage; Wage; Forecast Accuracy Comparisons; Box-Jenkins Modeling; Intervention Analysis; Time Series Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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