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Convergence across industrialised countries (1890-1989): new results using time series methods

Author

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  • Miguel S. Aubyn

    (Instituto Superior de Economia e GestÇo, Rua Miguel Lßpi 20, P-1200 Lisboa, Portugal)

Abstract

Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Kalman filter convergence tests are applied to annual GDPs per head to 16 industrialised countries from 1890 to 1989. Results favour convergence towards the US with a structural break following the Second World War. Estimates suggest that steady-states were higher after the war and that speeds of convergence are different across countries. The Kalman filter method dismissed the no convergence hypothesis more often than its ADF counterpart. This could explain the apparent contradiction in earlier empirical work on similar data sets (cross-section methods tended to favour convergence while time series methods were unable to dismiss the no convergence hypothesis.)

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel S. Aubyn, 1999. "Convergence across industrialised countries (1890-1989): new results using time series methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 23-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:24:y:1999:i:1:p:23-44
    Note: received: February 1996/final version received: September 1997
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mikael Linden, 2002. "Trend model testing of growth convergence in 15 OECD countries, 1946-1997," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 133-142.
    2. Franses, Philip Hans & Kunst, Robert M., 2007. "Analyzing a panel of seasonal time series: Does seasonality in industrial production converge across Europe?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 954-968, November.
    3. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2006. "Real convergence in Africa in the second-half of the 20th century," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 153-167.
    4. Krasnopjorovs, Olegs, 2013. "Latvijas ekonomikas izaugsmi noteicošie faktori [Factors of Economic Growth in Latvia]," MPRA Paper 47550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kian-Ping Lim & M. Azali & Hock-Ann Lee, 2005. "Income Disparity between Japan and ASEAN-5 Economies: Converge, Catching Up or Diverge?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(13), pages 1-20.
    6. Wang, David Han-Min, 2007. "Convergence tests on tax burden and economic growth among China, Taiwan and the OECD countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 278-286.
    7. László KÓNYA, 2023. "Per Capita Income Convergence and Divergence of Selected OECD Countries to and from the US: A Reappraisal for the period 1900-2018," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 23(1), pages 33-56.
    8. Giles, David E.A. & Feng, Hui, 2005. "Output and well-being in industrialized nations in the second half of the 20th century: testing for convergence using fuzzy clustering analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 285-308, June.
    9. Lee Kian Lim & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Convergence and catching up in ASEAN: a comparative analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 137-153.
    10. Joanna Tyrowicz & Piotr Wojcik, 2011. "Nonlinear Stochastic Convergence Analysis of Regional Unemployment Rates in Poland," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 3(1), pages 59-79, July.
    11. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2010. "Stochastic Filtering with Applications in Finance," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7736, December.
    12. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Nikolova, Biljana, 2013. "Measuring the interconnectedness of financial institutions," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 17-29.
    13. Sallahuddin Hassan & Musa Murtala, 2016. "The Role of Domestic Private Investment in Promoting Per Capita Income Convergence amongst Association of Southeast Asian Nations-5 Economies," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1299-1303.
    14. Lim, Lee K & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "Economic growth and technological catching up by Singapore to the USA," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 133-141.
    15. Atanu Ghoshray & Faiza Khan, 2015. "New empirical evidence on income convergence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 343-361, August.
    16. Rabindra Nepal and John Foster, 2016. "Testing for Market Integration in the Australian National Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    17. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2005:i:13:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Astrid Ayala & Juncal Cuñado & Luis Alb�riko Gil-Alana, 2012. "Real convergence in Latin America: a fractionally integrated approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(20), pages 1713-1717, October.
    19. Basdevant, Olivier, 2005. "Learning process and rational expectations: An analysis using a small macro-economic model for New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1074-1089, December.
    20. Habibullah, Muzafar & smith, peter & Affizzah Awang Marikan, Dayang, 2011. "Has Kelantan Grown Faster than Other States in Malaysia? A Panel Data Analysis," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 45, pages 53-59.
    21. Botshekan , Mohamad Hashem & Mohseni , Hosein, 2017. "Volatility Spillover among Industries in the Capital Market in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 12(2), pages 213-233, April.
    22. D'Adda, Carlo & Scorcu, Antonello E., 2003. "On the time stability of the output-capital ratio," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1175-1189, December.
    23. Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2012. "Interconnections and market integration in the Irish Single Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 425-434.
    24. Chi-Wei Su & Hsu-Ling Chang, 2013. "Is income converging in China?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(2), pages 341-356, April.
    25. Zachmann, Georg, 2008. "Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1659-1671, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration · convergence · growth · Kalman filter;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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