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Uncertainty and Risk in Mainstream Economics: An Outline (Niepewnosc i ryzyko w ekonomii glownego nurtu – zarys problematyki)

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  • Tomasz Zalega

    (University of Warsaw, National Economy Department, Faculty of Management, University of Warsaw)

Abstract

Undoubtedly, risk and uncertainty are not the fundamental economic categories, yet they play an important role in economic sciences and economic practice. Unfortunately, economists do not agree as to which term was used first and offer their different interpretations. The notions “risk” and “uncertainty” often occur together and are even treated as synonyms but they do not mean the same. The article presents selected concepts and classifications of these two terms. Considerations on risk and uncertainty should focus on improving and multiplying risk measurement methods and developing theories of taking decisions that make actions more rational. All economic sciences, economic men (households, businesses), and thus the entire economy, are expecting new ways to reduce negative consequences of uncertainty and risk and increase benefits associated with these states. This article aims to outline the phenomena of uncertainty and risk. The first part focuses on clarifying the two terms and discussing their basic types. The next section concentrates on the differences between uncertainty and risk, followed by risk measurement methods and evaluation criteria for decisions made under uncertainty. The main part hereof covers decisionmaking under risk. This issue is presented by providing some insight into the principle of expected value maximisation, the St. Petersburg paradox, the expected utility hypothesis, the principle of subjective expected utility, the Allais paradox, the prospect theory and the concept of experimental utility.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Zalega, 2016. "Uncertainty and Risk in Mainstream Economics: An Outline (Niepewnosc i ryzyko w ekonomii glownego nurtu – zarys problematyki)," Research Reports, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(21), pages 80-95.
  • Handle: RePEc:sgm:resrep:v:2:i:21:y:2016:p:80-95
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    File URL: http://www.sim.wz.uw.edu.pl/sites/default/files/artykuly/zalega_0.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January.
    2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    3. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
    4. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Birnbaum, Michael H. & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2010. "Allais paradoxes can be reversed by presenting choices in canonical split form," Kiel Working Papers 1615, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    decision-making; risk; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship

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