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A Causal Relationship Between Oil Prices Current Account Deficit, And Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis From Fragile Five Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Yuksel BAYRAKTAR,

    (Istanbul University, Turkey)

  • Taha EGRI,

    (Istanbul University, Turkey)

  • Furkan YILDIZ

    (Kirklareli University, Turkey)

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to determine the impact of oil prices in the Fragile-Five countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India, and Turkey) on current account deficit and growth. In this study, the method of panel data analysis was used and the period of 1980-2014 was examined. The Levin, Lin, & Chu panel; Im, Pesaran, and Shin W-stat; ADF-Fisher Chi-square; and PP-Fisher Chi-square unit root tests were used to determine the stability of data before panel data analysis. The results of the study can be expressed as follows. i) There was a statistically meaningful relationship in oil prices with both GDP and the current account deficit. While there was a positive correlation between oil prices and GDP, there was a negative relationship between oil prices and current account deficit. ii) No long-term relationship was found between GDP and oil prices; there was a long-term relationship between current account deficit and oil prices as determined by the cointegration tests. iii) Causality test also showed the presence of a bidirectional relationship between GDP and oil prices. Causality between oil prices and the current account deficit was one-way from the variable of oil price to the variable of current account deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuksel BAYRAKTAR, & Taha EGRI, & Furkan YILDIZ, 2016. "A Causal Relationship Between Oil Prices Current Account Deficit, And Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis From Fragile Five Countries," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(Special I), pages 1-3, august.
    • Handle: RePEc:scm:ecofrm:v:5:y:2016:i:s:p:3
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    3. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
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    5. Emin Karataş & Ayyüce Memiş Karataş, 2023. "This research discusses the causal relationship among the exchange rates, 10-year bond yields, and Central Bank policy rates with regard to the countries known as the Fragile Five (F5) by comparing th," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(39), pages 65-75, December.
    6. Jahangir S M Rashed & Dural Betul Yuce, 2018. "Crude oil, natural gas, and economic growth: impact and causality analysis in Caspian Sea region," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 54(3), pages 169-184, September.
    7. Ali, Amjad & Audi, Marc, 2023. "Analyzing the Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows on the Current Account Balance in Developing Economies: A Panel Data Approach," MPRA Paper 118173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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