IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/joupea/v61y2024i3p462-476.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bias mitigation in empirical peace and conflict studies: A short primer on posttreatment variables

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Dworschak

    (Department of Politics, University of York)

Abstract

Posttreatment variables are covariates that are preceded by the main explanatory variable. Their inclusion in a statistical model does not ‘control’ for their influence on the relationship of interest, and it does not substitute for a mediation analysis. Likewise, a coefficient estimate of an appropriate ‘control variable’ cannot be interpreted as a causal effect estimate. While these facts are well-established in various fields across the social sciences, their recognition in the field of peace and conflict studies is more limited. Originally collected data on recent publications from leading peace and conflict journals reveal that a large majority of evaluated articles condition on posttreatment variables, demonstrating how a review of these fallacies can help to substantially improve future research on peace and conflict. Drawing on a broad set of literature and using graphical approaches, I offer an intuitive explanation of the logic of posttreatment variables and clarify common misconceptions. Building on recent developments in methodology and software, and by deriving conditions for bounding using analytical bias expressions, I discuss avenues for dealing with posttreatment variables in observational studies. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for applied research.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Dworschak, 2024. "Bias mitigation in empirical peace and conflict studies: A short primer on posttreatment variables," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 61(3), pages 462-476, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:61:y:2024:i:3:p:462-476
    DOI: 10.1177/00223433221145531
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00223433221145531
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00223433221145531?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:61:y:2024:i:3:p:462-476. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.prio.no/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.