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Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick T. Brandt

    (School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas, Dallas)

  • John R. Freeman

    (Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota)

  • Philip A. Schrodt

    (Department of Political Science, The Pennsylvania State University)

Abstract

We propose a framework for forecasting and analyzing regional and international conflicts. It generates forecasts that (1) are accurate but account for uncertainty, (2) are produced in (near) real time, (3) capture actors’ simultaneous behaviors, (4) incorporate prior beliefs, and (5) generate policy contingent forecasts. We combine the CAMEO event-coding framework with Markov-switching and Bayesian vector autoregression models to meet these goals. Our example produces a series of forecasts for material conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians for 2010. Our forecast is that the level of material conflict between these belligerents will increase in 2010, compared to 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick T. Brandt & John R. Freeman & Philip A. Schrodt, 2011. "Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 41-64, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:41-64
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894210388125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mueller, Hannes & Rauh, Christopher, 2018. "Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 358-375, May.
    2. De Palma André & Perali Federico & Picard Nathalie & Ricciuti Roberto & Scorbureanu Alexandrina, 2013. "Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 103-122, August.
    3. Brandt, Patrick T. & Freeman, John R. & Schrodt, Philip A., 2014. "Evaluating forecasts of political conflict dynamics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 944-962.
    4. Joshi, Devin K. & Hughes, Barry B. & Sisk, Timothy D., 2015. "Improving Governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario Forecasting the Next 50years," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 286-302.
    5. Ore Koren, 2017. "Hunger Games: Food Security and Strategic Preemptive Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 253, Households in Conflict Network.

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