IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rsr/journl/v60y2012i4p49-64.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Econometric Models For Determing The Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Mihaela BRATU

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)

Abstract

The simple econometric models for the exchange rate, according to recent researches, generates the forecasts with the highest degree of accuracy. This type of models (Simultaneous Equations Model, MA(1) Procedure, Model with lagged variables) is used to describe the evolution of the average exchange rate in Romanian in January 1991-March 2012 and to predict it on short run. The best forecasts, in terms of accuracy, on the forecasting horizon April-May 2012 were those based on a Simultaneous Equations Model that takes into account the Granger causality. An almost high degree of accuracy was gotten by combining the predictions based on MA(1) model with those based on the simultaneous equations model, when INV weighting scheme was applied (the forecasts are inversely weighted to their relative mean squared forecast error). The lagged variables Model provided the highest prediction errors. The importance of knowing the best exchange rate forecasts is related to the improvement of decision-making and the building of the monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela BRATU, 2012. "Econometric Models For Determing The Exchange Rate," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 60(4), pages 49-64, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsr:journl:v:60:y:2012:i:4:p:49-64
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.revistadestatistica.ro/Articole/2012/art4_en_rrs_4_2012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    2. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    4. George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2008. "A complete VARMA modelling methodology based on scalar components," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 533-554, May.
    5. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    2. Candian, Giacomo, 2019. "Information frictions and real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 189-205.
    3. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Trapero, Juan R., 2014. "Improving forecasting by estimating time series structural components across multiple frequencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 291-302.
    4. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2018. "On The Sources Of Uncertainty In Exchange Rate Predictability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 329-357, February.
    6. Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2018. "Understanding the sources of the exchange rate disconnect puzzle: A variance decomposition approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 267-287.
    7. Jiahan Li & Ilias Tsiakas & Wei Wang, 2015. "Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 293-341.
    8. Takashi Kano, 2021. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A General Equilibrium Exploration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 95-117, February.
    9. Devereux, Michael B. & Saito, Makoto & Yu, Changhua, 2020. "International capital flows, portfolio composition, and the stability of external imbalances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Jaewoo Lee, 2013. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross-Country Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 845-865, August.
    11. Enrique Martínez García, 2008. "Globalization and monetary policy: an introduction," Globalization Institute Working Papers 11, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Ulrich Gunter, 2021. "Improving Hotel Room Demand Forecasts for Vienna across Hotel Classes and Forecast Horizons: Single Models and Combination Techniques Based on Encompassing Tests," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-36, November.
    13. Bozhechkova Alexandra & Trunin Pavel & Sinelnikova-Muryleva Elena & Petrova Diana & Chentsov Alexander, 2018. "Building of monetary and currency markets models," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 175P, pages 1-96.
    14. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2020. "Economic momentum and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 152-167.
    15. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2017. "Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 127-146.
    16. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    17. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    18. Serban, Alina F., 2010. "Combining mean reversion and momentum trading strategies in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2720-2727, November.
    19. Kano, Takashi, 2024. "Trend inflation and exchange rate dynamics: A new Keynesian approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    20. Eckert, Florian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2021. "Forecasting Swiss exports using Bayesian forecast reconciliation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(2), pages 693-710.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rsr:journl:v:60:y:2012:i:4:p:49-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adrian Visoiu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/stagvro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.