IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/integr/0367.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Comparative Analysis of the EU-Morocco FTA vs. Multilateral Liberalization

Author

Listed:
  • Elbehri, Aziz

    (Economic Research Service, USDA)

  • Hertel, Thomas

    (Global Trade Analysis Project, Purdue University)

Abstract

on detailed plant-level data, is used to contrast the impacts of the Morocco-EU free trade area (FTA) to multilateral trade liberalization on Morocco’s economy. Simulation results show that the FTA agreement is likely to have adverse effects on Morocco due to: (a) deteriorating terms of trade, (b) reductions in output per firm in industries dominated by scale economies, (c) diversion of imports away from relatively low cost, non-EU suppliers, and (d) potentially adverse effects on the aggregate demand for labor which could exacerbate already high levels of unemployment. We contrast this FTA with a multilateral liberalization scenario along the lines of those proposed under the Doha Development Round and find this to be more beneficial to Morocco, despite the associated income transfer from the EU to Morocco. The difference may be attributed to: (a) lesser terms of trade losses, (b) positive scale effects, (c) non-preferential liberalization of imports into Morocco, and (d) a positive impact on aggregate labor demand and hence unemployment. We conclude that Morocco would be better off pursuing trade liberalization in the multilateral arena.

Suggested Citation

  • Elbehri, Aziz & Hertel, Thomas, 2006. "A Comparative Analysis of the EU-Morocco FTA vs. Multilateral Liberalization," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 496-525.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0367
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mercenier, Jean, 1995. "Can "1992" reduce unemployment in Europe? On welfare and employment effects of Europe's move to a single market," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-37, February.
    2. Mercenier, J., 1992. "Can '1991' Reduce Unemployment in Europe? On Welfare and Employment Effects of Europe's Move to Single Market," Cahiers de recherche 9222, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    3. Jaime de MELO & Shujiro URATA, 2015. "The Influence of Increased Foreign Competition on Industrial Concentration and Profitability," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 9, pages 219-236, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Mayer, Jörg, 2004. "Export Dynamism and Market Access," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 289-316.
    5. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Rodrik, Dani, 1989. "Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries: Do Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 283-287, May.
    6. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    7. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2009. "Some Economic Effects of the Free Trade Agreement between Tunisia and the European Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization And International Trade Policies, chapter 11, pages 343-392, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    9. Matthew McQueen, 2002. "The EU's Free–trade Agreements with Developing Countries: A Case of Wishful Thinking?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(9), pages 1369-1385, September.
    10. Haaland, Jan I., 1994. "The Uruguay Round and Trade in Manufactures and Services. General Equilibrium Simulations of Production, Trade and Welfare Effects of Liberalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 1008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Thomas F. Rutherford & E. Elisabet Rutstrom & David Tarr, 2014. "Morocco's free trade agreement with the EU: A quantitative assessment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 17, pages 405-437, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Wusheng Yu, 2003. "How Desirable is the South Asian Free Trade Area? A Quantitative Economic Assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(9), pages 1293-1323, September.
    13. Dani Rodrik, 1988. "Imperfect Competition, Scale Economies, and Trade Policy in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, pages 109-144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Robert E. Baldwin, 1988. "Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bald88-2.
    15. Smith, Alasdair & Venables, Anthony J., 1988. "Completing the internal market in the European Community : Some industry simulations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1501-1525, September.
    16. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2004. "Specification choice and robustness in CGE trade policy analysis with imperfect competition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1065-1099, December.
    17. Jensen, Paul E. & Madan, Vibhas, 2004. "Preferential Trade Agreements, Market Power, and Product Differentiation," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 162-181.
    18. Gasiorek, Michael & Smith, Alasdair & Venables, Anthony J, 1992. "`1992': Trade and Welfare; A General Equilibrium Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates In The Gtap Data Base," Technical Papers 28721, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Baldwin, Richard E. & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Regional economic integration," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1597-1644, Elsevier.
    21. Francois, Joseph F., 1998. "Scale Economies And Imperfect Competition In The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28718, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    22. Arvind Panagariya, 2002. "EU Preferential Trade Arrangements and Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(10), pages 1415-1432, November.
    23. Maurizio Bussolo & David Roland-Holst, 1993. "A Detailed Input-Output Table for Morocco, 1990," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 90, OECD Publishing.
    24. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates in the GTAP Data Base," GTAP Technical Papers 315, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    25. Arvind Panagariya, 2003. "South Asia: Does Preferential Trade Liberalisation Make Sense?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(9), pages 1279-1291, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mouna Cherkaoui & Ayache Khellaf & Abdelaziz Nihou, 2011. "The Price Effect of Tariff Liberalization in Morocco: Measuring the Impact on Household Welfare," Working Papers 637, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    2. Erbil, Can, 2001. "Trade Taxes are Better?!?," Conference papers 330921, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Chandrima Sikdar & Biswajit Nag, 2011. "Impact of India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: A cross-country analysis using applies general equilibrium modelling," Working Papers 10711, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    4. Sayef Bakari & Mohamed Mabrouki, 2019. "The Relationship Between Economic Growth, Exports And Imports In Morocco: An Empirical Validation Based On Var Modeling Techniques And Causality In The Meaning Of Granger," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 4(3), pages 47-55, December.
    5. Rolleigh, Michael, 2006. "Plant Heterogeneity and Applied General Equilibrium Models of Trade: Lessons from the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement," Conference papers 331563, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Sabine Mage-Bertomeu, 2006. "Les modèles d'équilibre général appliqués à la politique commerciale : développements récents," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(3), pages 357-381.
    7. Sadni Jallab, Mustapha & Abdelmalki, Lahsen, 2007. "The Free Trade Agreement Between the United States and Morocco: The Importance of a Gradual and Assymetric Agreement," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 852-887.
    8. Kore Marc Guei, 2019. "Does financial structure matter for economic growth: evidence from South Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1941-1957.
    9. Badri Narayanan G. & Vasundhara Rungta, 2014. "Export Subsidy Reforms and Productivity Improvements: The Case of the Indian Textile and Clothing Sector," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(3), pages 327-352, August.
    10. Hess, Sebastian, 2005. "An Econometric Model of CGE Simulations," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24713, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Lee, Donna J. & Zhang, J., 2006. "Estimating Global Environmental Implications of Agricultural Trade Liberalization: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25290, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Tchouamou Njoya, Eric, 2020. "An analysis of the tourism and wider economic impacts of price-reducing reforms in air transport services in Egypt," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Kavallari, Aikaterini & Schmitz, P. M., 2012. "Preference erosion effects on the agricultural sector of the EU’s Mediterranean Partner Countries," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15.
    14. Kavallari, Aikaterini & Borresch, Rene & Schmitz, P. Michael, 2006. "Modelling agricultural policy reforms in the Mediterranean basin - Adjustments of AGRISIM," 98th Seminar, June 29-July 2, 2006, Chania, Crete, Greece 10074, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1696 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elbehri, Aziz & Hertel, Thomas, 2006. "A Comparative Analysis of the EU-Morocco FTA vs. Multilateral Liberalization," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 496-525.
    2. 武田 史郎, 2007. "貿易政策を対象とした応用一般均衡分析," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 07010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2004. "Specification choice and robustness in CGE trade policy analysis with imperfect competition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1065-1099, December.
    4. Shiro Takeda, 2010. "A computable general equilibrium analysis of the welfare effects of trade liberalization under different market structures," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 75-93.
    5. Silvia Laens & María Inés Terra, 1999. "Effects of the Completition of MERCOSUR on the Uruguayan Labor Market. A simulation exercies using a CGE model," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 2199, Department of Economics - dECON.
    6. Jaime de Melo & David Tarr, 2015. "VERs under imperfect competition and foreign direct investment: A case study of the US–Japan auto VER," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 22, pages 461-483, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & Esmaeili, Hamid & Ihadiyan, Abid, 2007. "Ouverture commerciale et migration," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(1), pages 71-90, mars.
    8. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    9. Jaime de Melo & David Roland-Holst, 2015. "Industrial Organization and Trade Liberalization: Evidence from Korea," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 18, pages 385-404, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. De Miguel, Carlos J. & Durán Lima, José Elías & Schuschny, Andrés Ricardo, 2007. "Trade agreements by Colombia, Ecuador and Peru with the United States: effects on trade, production and welfare," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    11. Narayana, Badri G. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Horridge, J. Mark, 2010. "Linking Partial and General Equilibrium Models: A GTAP Application Using TASTE," Technical Papers 283427, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. De Miguel, Carlos J. & Durán Lima, José Elías & Schuschny, Andrés Ricardo, 2007. "Los acuerdos comerciales de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú con los Estados Unidos: efectos sobre el comercio, la producción y el bienestar," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    13. Betarelli, Admir Antonio & Domingues, Edson Paulo & Hewings, Geoffrey John Dennis, 2020. "Transport policy, rail freight sector and market structure: The economic effects in Brazil," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-23.
    14. Ferjani, Ali, 2003. "Imperfect Competition, Economies of Scale and Trade Liberalisation in Tunisia - A Comparative Analysis Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM)," Agrarwirtschaft und Agrarsoziologie\ Economie et Sociologie Rurales, Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 2003(1), pages 1-18.
    15. Soo Yuen Chong & Jung Hur, 2007. "Overlapping Free Trade Agreements of Singapore-USA-Japan : A Computational Analysis," Trade Working Papers 21931, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    16. Mercenier, Jean & Yeldan, Erinc, 1999. "A Plea For Greater Attention on the Data in Policy Analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 851-873, December.
    17. Francois, Joseph & Manchin, Miriam & Martin, Will, 2013. "Market Structure in Multisector General Equilibrium Models of Open Economies," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1571-1600, Elsevier.
    18. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    19. Mercenier, Jean & Yeldan, A. Erinc, 1996. "On Turkey's European Trade Policy: How Desirable is a Status Quo," 1996: Implications of the New Growth Theory to Agricultural Trade Research and Trade Policy Conference, December 1996, Washington DC 50865, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    20. Laborde, David & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2008. "Implications of the 2008 Doha Draft Agricultural and NAMA Market Access Modalities for Developing Countries," Conference papers 331719, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Applied general equilibrium; Market Structure; Trade liberalization; Developing economies; Morocco;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yunhoe Kim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desejkr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.