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Bank Failure Prediction Model for Zimbabwe

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Gumbo
  • Simba Zoromedza

Abstract

Probability of Default (PD) is a financial term describing the likelihood of default over a particular time horizon. This concept has attracted a lot of interest ever since the late 1960¡¯s and has been extended to the banking sector to predict probability of failure as well as bank performance ratings. We derive the probability of bankruptcy and bank ratings in a Zimbabwean context based on data between 2009 and 2013, inclusive. We build a model to predict the probability of bank failure twelve months in advance for Zimbabwean banks based on twelve micro factors. Further, we build the corresponding rating model. The empirical analysis revealed that the warning signal so developed produced a robust result with a high prediction accuracy of 92.31% compared to 60% of the Altman¡¯s Z Score model.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Gumbo & Simba Zoromedza, 2016. "Bank Failure Prediction Model for Zimbabwe," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 222-235, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:3:y:2016:i:3:p:222-235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester, 1998. "Bank Capitalization And Cost: Evidence Of Scale Economies In Risk Management And Signaling," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 314-325, May.
    3. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
    4. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Ms. Claudia H Dziobek, 1997. "Lessons From Systemic Bank Restructuring: A Survey of 24 Countries," IMF Working Papers 1997/161, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ellis, David M. & Flannery, Mark J., 1992. "Does the debt market assess large banks, risk? : Time series evidence from money center CDs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 481-502, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cinderella Dube & Victor Gumbo, 2017. "Adoption and Use of Information Communication Technologies in Zimbabwean Supermarkets," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 84-92, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bankruptcy; early warning systems; bank failure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other

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