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Using an evolving criterion to assess the Federal Reserve's behaviour in recent years

Author

Listed:
  • Davide Ferrari

    (University of Minnesota, School of Statistics, Minneapolis {USA))

  • Antonio Ribba

    (Universita degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica, Modena (Italy))

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse the behaviour of the Federal Reserve in the Greenspan era by using recently developed neuro-fuzzy techniques. Such models require the operation assumptions concerning the conduct of monetary policy to be set in the form of flexible rules. Moreover, the approach allows an adaptive model to be built, thus pointing out the role played by the evolution of the monetary policy decision mechanism. Besides the usual set of macro-economic variables, the input data set includes a stock market indicator. Our results show that the simulated series offederal funds rate mimics almost perfectly the actual behaviour of the monetary policy instrument.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Ferrari & Antonio Ribba, 2005. "Using an evolving criterion to assess the Federal Reserve's behaviour in recent years," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(235), pages 169-186.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlqrr:2005:32
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    File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/9859/9741
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    3. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    4. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    5. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    6. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Monetary; Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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