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Government Tax Forecasting: Ex Ante Appraisal and Ex Post Evaluation of Accuracy in the Czech Republic
[Vládní daňové predikce: ex ante odhady a ex post hodnocení přesnosti v České republice]

Author

Listed:
  • Ondřej Bayer

Abstract

The article is based on evaluation of government's tax revenue forecasting in Czech Republic between years 2004 and 2007. For evaluation of government forecasting are used ex-post and ex-ante methods. Within the scope of ex-ante method are described methods of regression analysis and time-lines decomposition. Next part is aimed on most frequent errors in statistic forecasting and creation of evaluations. In the part of Ex-post forecasting are described microsimulation measured on Czech tax system between years 2004 and 2007. Government forecasts are evaluated by quality and realized errors are pinpointed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ondřej Bayer, 2011. "Government Tax Forecasting: Ex Ante Appraisal and Ex Post Evaluation of Accuracy in the Czech Republic [Vládní daňové predikce: ex ante odhady a ex post hodnocení přesnosti v České republice]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(1), pages 42-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlcfu:v:2011:y:2011:i:1:id:96:p:42-54
    DOI: 10.18267/j.cfuc.96
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Keene & Peter Thomson, 2007. "An Analysis of Tax Revenue Forecast Errors," Treasury Working Paper Series 07/02, New Zealand Treasury.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast; Tax revenue; Evaluation; Predikce; Daňové výnosy; Hodnocení;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

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