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How long should the COVID-19 lockdown continue?

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Caulkins
  • Dieter Grass
  • Gustav Feichtinger
  • Richard Hartl
  • Peter M Kort
  • Alexia Prskawetz
  • Andrea Seidl
  • Stefan Wrzaczek

Abstract

Nations struggled to decide when and how to end COVID-19 inspired lockdowns, with sharply divergent views between those arguing for a resumption of economic activity and those arguing for continuing the lockdown in some form. We examine the choice between continuing or ending a full lockdown within a simple optimal control model that encompasses both health and economic outcomes, and pays particular attention to when need for care exceeds hospital capacity. The model shows that very different strategies can perform similarly well and even both be optimal for the same relative valuation on work and life because of the presence of a so-called Skiba threshold. Qualitatively the alternate strategies correspond to trying essentially to eradicate the virus or merely to flatten the curve so fewer people urgently need healthcare when hospitals are already filled to capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Caulkins & Dieter Grass & Gustav Feichtinger & Richard Hartl & Peter M Kort & Alexia Prskawetz & Andrea Seidl & Stefan Wrzaczek, 2020. "How long should the COVID-19 lockdown continue?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0243413
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0243413
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivàn Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown," CeMMAP working papers CWP14/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed Al-Rawi & Maliha Siddiqi & Clare Wenham & Julia Smith, 2022. "The gendered dimensions of the anti-mask and anti-lockdown movement on social media," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Caulkins, J.P. & Grass, D. & Feichtinger, G. & Hartl, R.F. & Kort, P.M. & Kuhn, M. & Prskawetz, A. & Sanchez-Romero, M. & Seidl, A. & Wrzaczek, S., 2023. "The hammer and the jab: Are COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccinations complements or substitutes?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 233-250.
    3. Neuvonen, Lauri & Wildemeersch, Matthias & Vilkkumaa, Eeva, 2023. "Supporting strategy selection in multiobjective decision problems under uncertainty and hidden requirements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 279-293.
    4. Gopal K. Basak & Chandramauli Chakraborty & Pranab Kumar Das, 2024. "In search of an optimal public policy in a pandemic: The question of lives versus livelihood," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 3(4), pages 23-48, December.
    5. Michael Freiberger & Dieter Grass & Michael Kuhn & Andrea Seidl & Stefan Wrzaczek, 2022. "Chasing up and locking down the virus: Optimal pandemic interventions within a network," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 1182-1217, October.
    6. Caulkins, Jonathan P. & Grass, Dieter & Feichtinger, Gustav & Hartl, Richard F. & Kort, Peter M. & Prskawetz, Alexia & Seidl, Andrea & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2021. "The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Florin Avram & Rim Adenane & Lasko Basnarkov & Gianluca Bianchin & Dan Goreac & Andrei Halanay, 2023. "An Age of Infection Kernel, an R Formula, and Further Results for Arino–Brauer A , B Matrix Epidemic Models with Varying Populations, Waning Immunity, and Disease and Vaccination Fatalities," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, March.
    8. Grass, D. & Wrzaczek, S. & Caulkins, J.P. & Feichtinger, G. & Hartl, R.F. & Kort, P.M. & Kuhn, M. & Prskawetz, A. & Sanchez-Romero, M. & Seidl, A., 2024. "Riding the waves from epidemic to endemic: Viral mutations, immunological change and policy responses," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 46-65.
    9. Yunfeng Shang & Pan Qi & Hui Chen & Qin Yang & Yuan Chen, 2023. "COVID-19 and its impact on tourism sectors: implications for green economic recovery," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 941-958, April.

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