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Something from nothing: Estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policies

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  • Nicholas Bardsley
  • Milena Büchs
  • Sylke V Schnepf

Abstract

Consumption surveys often record zero purchases of a good because of a short observation window. Measures of distribution are then precluded and only mean consumption rates can be inferred. We show that Propensity Score Matching can be applied to recover the distribution of consumption rates. We demonstrate the method using the UK National Travel Survey, in which c.40% of motorist households purchase no fuel. Estimated consumption rates are plausible judging by households’ annual mileages, and highly skewed. We apply the same approach to estimate CO2 emissions and outcomes of a carbon cap or tax. Reliance on means apparently distorts analysis of such policies because of skewness of the underlying distributions. The regressiveness of a simple tax or cap is overstated, and redistributive features of a revenue-neutral policy are understated.

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  • Nicholas Bardsley & Milena Büchs & Sylke V Schnepf, 2017. "Something from nothing: Estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0185538
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0185538
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    Cited by:

    1. Milena Büchs & Noel Cass & Caroline Mullen & Karen Lucas & Diana Ivanova, 2023. "Emissions savings from equitable energy demand reduction," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(7), pages 758-769, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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