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Risk Premium, Variance Premium, and the Maturity Structure of Uncertainty

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  • Bruno Feunou
  • Jean-Sébastien Fontaine
  • Abderrahim Taamouti
  • Roméo Tédongap

Abstract

Structural or no-arbitrage asset-pricing models emphasize risk factors that cannot be observed directly. We show that the term structure of risk implicit in option prices can reveal these risk factors. Empirically, the variance term structure reveals two predictors of the bond premium, the equity premium, and the variance premium, jointly. Similarly, the term structures of skewness and kurtosis measures also reveal risk factors, but these are subsumed in the predictive content of the variance. The predicted premium is countercyclical and robust to the inclusion of known returns predictors.

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  • Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Abderrahim Taamouti & Roméo Tédongap, 2014. "Risk Premium, Variance Premium, and the Maturity Structure of Uncertainty," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 219-269.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:18:y:2014:i:1:p:219-269.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Guo & Xinfeng Ruan & Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2023. "Term spreads of implied volatility smirk and variance risk premium," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 829-857, July.
    2. Mirco Rubin & Dario Ruzzi, 2020. "Equity tail risk in the treasury bond market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1311, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Bruno Feunou & Mohammad R Jahan-Parvar & Cédric Okou, 2018. "Downside Variance Risk Premium," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 341-383.
    4. Benjamin A. Jansen, 2021. "Cash flow growth and stock returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 371-402, June.
    5. Yaw‐Huei Wang & Kuang‐Chieh Yen, 2018. "The information content of option‐implied tail risk on the future returns of the underlying asset," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 493-510, April.
    6. Mueller, Philippe & Vedolin, Andrea & Yen, Yu-Min, 2012. "Bond variance risk premia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119053, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Stentoft, Lars & Violante, Francesco, 2020. "Variance swap payoffs, risk premia and extreme market conditions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 106-124.
    8. Jianjian Jin, 2013. "Jump-Diffusion Long-Run Risks Models, Variance Risk Premium and Volatility Dynamics," Staff Working Papers 13-12, Bank of Canada.
    9. Yaw‐Huei Wang & Kuang‐Chieh Yen, 2019. "The information content of the implied volatility term structure on future returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(2), pages 380-406, March.
    10. Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Can macroeconomic dynamics explain the time variation of risk–return trade-offs in the U.S. financial market?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 275-293.
    11. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
    12. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
    13. Jonathan Dark & Xin Gao & Thijs van der Heijden & Federico Nardari, 2022. "Forecasting variance swap payoffs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2135-2164, December.
    14. Xinglin Yang & Ji Chen, 2021. "VIX term structure: The role of jump propagation risks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 785-810, June.
    15. Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk & Chardin Wese Simen, 2019. "The term structure of systematic and idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 435-460, April.
    16. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2019. "The information content of forward moments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 527-541.
    17. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Stef, Nicolae & Wissal, Ben Arfi & Sami, Ben Jabeur, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects and connectedness among climate change, technological innovation, and uncertainty: Evidence from a quantile VAR network and wavelet coherence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    18. Dotsis, George, 2017. "The market price of risk of the variance term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 41-52.
    19. Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Unfolded risk-return trade-offs and links to Macroeconomic Dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-19.
    20. Cao, Charles & Simin, Timothy & Xiao, Han, 2020. "Predicting the equity premium with the implied volatility spread," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    21. Cao, Charles & Simin, Timothy & Xiao, Han, 2019. "Predicting the equity premium with the implied volatility spread," MPRA Paper 103651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Mirco Rubin & Dario Ruzzi, 2020. "Equity Tail Risk in the Treasury Bond Market," Papers 2007.05933, arXiv.org.
    23. Rubio, Gonzalo & Serrano, Pedro & Vaello-Sebastià, Antoni, 2023. "The international integration of the term structure of expected market risk premia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    24. Schneider, Paul, 2019. "An anatomy of the market return," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 325-350.
    25. Gomes, Pedro & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2016. "In search of the determinants of European asset market comovements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-117.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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