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What Information Drives Asset Prices?
[Information quality and long-run risk: Asset pricing implications]

Author

Listed:
  • Anisha Ghosh
  • George M Constantinides

Abstract

We contribute to identifying proxies for the information set of investors in financial markets. We show that the marketwide price-dividend ratio highly correlates with inflation and labor market variables that also forecast consumption, dividend, and GDP growth, but not with aggregate consumption or GDP growth. Our model with learning from inflation and wage earnings rationalizes the moments of consumption and dividend growth, market return, the price-dividend ratio, real and nominal term structures, the low predictive power of the price-dividend ratio for consumption and dividends, and the dynamics of the price-dividend ratio, unlike a nested model with learning from consumption alone. (JEL E3, G12, G14)

Suggested Citation

  • Anisha Ghosh & George M Constantinides, 2021. "What Information Drives Asset Prices? [Information quality and long-run risk: Asset pricing implications]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 837-885.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:11:y:2021:i:4:p:837-885.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rapstu/raab012
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilya Dergunov & Christoph Meinerding & Christian Schlag, 2023. "Extreme Inflation and Time-Varying Expected Consumption Growth," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2972-3002, May.
    2. George M. Constantinides, 2017. "Asset Pricing: Models and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 1782-1790.
    3. John List & Harald Uhlig, 2017. "Introduction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 1723-1727.
    4. Ufuk Akcigit & Fernando Alvarez & Stephane Bonhomme & George M Constantinides & Douglas W Diamond & Eugene F Fama & David W Galenson & Michael Greenstone & Lars Peter Hansen & Uhlig Harald & James J H, 2017. "The Past, Present, and Future of Economics: A Celebration of the 125-Year Anniversary of the JPE and of Chicago Economics," Natural Field Experiments 00635, The Field Experiments Website.
    5. Dergunov, Ilya & Meinerding, Christoph & Schlag, Christian, 2019. "Extreme inflation and time-varying consumption growth," Discussion Papers 16/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D00 - Microeconomics - - General - - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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