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Migration restrictions and long-term regional development: evidence from large-scale expulsions of Germans after World War II
[The consequences of radical reform: the French revolution]

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  • Michael Wyrwich

Abstract

This article investigates the long-run impact of a migration barrier on regional development. The analysis is based on the large-scale expulsion of Germans from Central and Eastern Europe after World War II (WWII). Expellees were not allowed to resettle in the French occupation zone in the first years after the War while there was no such legislation in the other occupation zones (USA; UK; Soviet Union). The temporary migration barrier had long-lasting consequences. In a nutshell, results of a Difference-in-Difference (DiD) analysis show that growth of population and population density were significantly lower even 60 years after the removal of the barrier if a region was part of the French occupation zone. There was a common trend in regional development before the migration barrier became effective. Further analyses suggest that this pattern is driven by different population dynamics in agglomerated areas. The article discusses implications for spatial theory namely whether location fundamentals, agglomeration theories or both affect the spatial equilibrium under certain conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Wyrwich, 2020. "Migration restrictions and long-term regional development: evidence from large-scale expulsions of Germans after World War II [The consequences of radical reform: the French revolution]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 481-507.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jecgeo:v:20:y:2020:i:2:p:481-507.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeg/lbz024
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    Cited by:

    1. Valentin Lang & Stephan A. Schneider, 2023. "Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run," CESifo Working Paper Series 10621, CESifo.
    2. Braun, Sebastian Till & Weber, Henning, 2021. "How do regional labor markets adjust to immigration? A dynamic analysis for post-war Germany," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Michael Fritsch & Maria Kristalova & Michael Wyrwich, 2020. "Regional trajectories of entrepreneurship: the effect of socialism and transition," Jena Economics Research Papers 2020-010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    4. Braun, Sebastian T. & Dwenger, Nadja, 2020. "Settlement location shapes the integration of forced migrants: Evidence from post-war Germany⁎," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration barrier; population shock; refugee migration; long-term regional development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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