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The Uruguay Round and Africa: A Global, General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Hertel, Thomas W
  • Masters, William A
  • Elbehri, Aziz

Abstract

Using a 10-region, 12-sector model of the global economy, projected forward to 2005 with and without implementation of the Uruguay Round (UR) trade agreements, we confirm earlier expectations that Africa is likely to be the only major region of the world to lose from UR implementation--but find that UR-induced costs would be far outweighed by the potential gains from catching up with other low-income countries in agricultural productivity and in transport costs. Furthermore, we find that implementing the UR accelerates a resource-driven shift in Africa's comparative advantage towards agriculture (as opposed to mining or manufacturing) and towards trade with Asia (as opposed to Europe). Recognising and supporting this 'Asia/agriculture' development strategy will be a key to raising African incomes over the coming decade. Copyright 1998 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Hertel, Thomas W & Masters, William A & Elbehri, Aziz, 1998. "The Uruguay Round and Africa: A Global, General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 7(2), pages 208-236, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:7:y:1998:i:2:p:208-36
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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2008. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Impacts," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 265-296, January.
    2. Margaret S. McMillan & William A. Masters, 2000. "Africa's Growth Trap: A Political-Economy Model of Taxation, R&D and Investment," CID Working Papers 50A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    3. Denny Lewis‐Bynoe & Jennifer Griffith & Winston Moore, 2002. "Trade Liberalization And The Manufacturing Sector: The Case Of The Small Developing Country," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(3), pages 272-287, July.
    4. Mutambatsere, Emelly, 2006. "Trade Policy Reforms in the Cereals Sector of the SADC Region: Implications on Food Security," Working Papers 127055, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    5. Trueblood, Michael & Shapouri, Shahla, 1999. "Trade Liberalization and the Sub-Sahara African Countries: Adjusting to the Challenges of Globalization," Miscellaneous Publications 330365, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Christensen, Cheryl, 2000. "The new policy environment for food aid: the challenge of sub-Saharan Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 255-268, June.
    7. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates In The Gtap Data Base," Technical Papers 28721, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Meijl, Hans van & Tongeren, Frank van, 2004. "International diffusion of gains from biotechnology and the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 307-316, December.
    9. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2007. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-07, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    10. Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 1999. "After the negotiations: assessing the impact of free trade agreements in Southern Africa," TMD discussion papers 46, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Anderson, Kym & Jackson, Lee Ann & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "GM Cotton Adoption, Recent and Prospective: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Lee, Jong Eun, 2002. "Does Sequence Matter in Free Trade Area?," Conference papers 331010, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Winters, Alan, 2003. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What Do We Know?," Conference papers 331162, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. John McLaren, 2003. "Institutional Elements of Tax Design and Reform," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15170.

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