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Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in the Franc Zone

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  • Simeon Coleman

Abstract

This paper estimates the degree of real exchange rate misalignment in 12 CFA (Communauté Financière Africaine) franc zone countries over the period 1960--99. Allowing for contemporaneous error co-variances, due to observed cross-sectional dependence, we use seemingly unrelated regressions equation estimations to estimate the equilibrium real effective exchange rate and degree of misalignment in each country. We find significant differences across member-states, however, the largest economies--Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal--showed some striking similarities. Just prior to the 1994 devaluation, these three economies were much more overvalued compared with the smaller member-states, some of which were either marginally misaligned or virtually in equilibrium. In 1994, only Côte d'Ivoire is exactly in equilibrium as a result of the devaluation. Our analysis of misalignment for the period after 1994 suggests that some challenges lie ahead for the CFA franc zone, if fixed parity is to be maintained. Copyright 2008 The author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

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  • Simeon Coleman, 2008. "Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in the Franc Zone," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(4), pages 600-634, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:17:y:2008:i:4:p:600-634
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jae/ejm043
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    Cited by:

    1. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Monfort, Mercedes & Ordóñez, Javier, 2024. "Have real exchange rates and competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe fundamentally changed?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 618-628.
    2. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordoñez, 2019. "Real exchange rates and competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe: have they fundamentally changed?," Working Papers 2019/12, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    3. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2009. "Inflation persistence and asymmetries: evidence for African countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2009/2, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    4. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2017. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 949-974, November.
    5. Marcel Schroder, 2013. "Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?," Departmental Working Papers 2013-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    6. Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "Current account and structural change in European transition economies," Working Papers 2019/08, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    7. Estefania Mourelle & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis Alberiko Gil‐alana, 2011. "Is There An Asymmetric Behaviour In African Inflation? A Non‐Linear Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 68-90, March.
    8. Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2023. "Has the current account broken up with its fundamentals in Central and Eastern Europe?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 962-980, January.
    9. Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Issiaka & Guerreiro, David & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "Revisiting the theory of optimum currency areas: Is the CFA franc zone sustainable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 428-441.
    10. Schröder, Marcel, 2013. "Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 140-151.
    11. Assande Des Adom, 2012. "Beyond the CFA Franc: an empirical analysis of the choice of an exchange rate regime in the UEMOA," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(2), pages 71-93, September.
    12. Ferdinand Owoundi & Jacques Landry Bikai, 2021. "On the neutrality of the exchange rate regime regarding real misalignments: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 327-345, July.

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