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The political economy of a Northern Ireland border poll

Author

Listed:
  • Seamus McGuinness
  • Adele Bergin

Abstract

Given the increased prominence of a border poll in Ireland, particularly following the outcome of the Brexit referendum, this paper provides an initial assessment of some of the issues that are likely to become central in any debate on this issue. We examine the relative income and growth position of Northern Ireland within a UK and Irish regional framework over time. We further compare, and contrast, in detail aspects of the structure of both economies on the island of Ireland in the areas of educational attainment, trade orientation and the role of Foreign Direct Investment. The paper goes on to analyse other relevant issues, such as the relative strength and weaknesses of the healthcare systems and the factors determining the potential economic cost of Irish unification. The objective of the research is to initiate an evidence-based approach to the question of a border poll and to provide an initial indication of the breadth of detail and analysis required for any debate to proceed in a meaningful manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Seamus McGuinness & Adele Bergin, 2020. "The political economy of a Northern Ireland border poll," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(4), pages 781-812.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:44:y:2020:i:4:p:781-812.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/beaa007
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    1. Hylke Vandenbussche & William Connell & Wouter Simons, 2022. "Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2338-2369, August.
    2. Bergin, Adele & Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number EO1 edited by Bergin, Adele & Morgenroth, Edgar & McQuinn, Kieran, march.
    3. Rowthorn, Bob, 1981. "Northern Ireland: An Economy in Crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 5(1), pages 1-31, March.
    4. Wren, Maev-Ann & Connolly, Sheelagh & Cunningham, Nathan, 2015. "An Examination of the Potential Costs of Universal Health Insurance in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS45.
    5. John FitzGerald, 2020. "National Accounts for a Global Economy: The Case of Ireland," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges of Globalization in the Measurement of National Accounts, pages 65-101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Monique Ebell & James Warren, 2016. "The Long-Term Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 121-138, May.
    7. Michie, Jonathan & Sheehan, Maura, 1998. "The Political Economy of a Divided Ireland," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 22(2), pages 243-259, March.
    8. McQuinn, Kieran & O’Toole, Conor & Allen-Coghlan, Matthew & Economides, Philip, 2019. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2019," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC, march.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chih‐Hai Yang & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2023. "The Substitution Effect of US‐China Trade War on Taiwanese Trade," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 61(4), pages 324-341, December.
    2. Disch, Wendy & Egan, Paul & Kenny, Eoin & McQuinn, Kieran, 2024. "Contrasting housing supply in Ireland, Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS175.
    3. Smyth, Emer & Devlin, Anne & Bergin, Adele & McGuinness, Seamus, 2022. "A North-South comparison of education and training systems: Lessons for policy," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS138.
    4. Siedschlag, Iulia & Yan, Weijie, 2021. "Enhancing the attractiveness of the all-island economy to high-value sectors," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS133.
    5. Bergins, Adele & McGuinness, Seamus, 2022. "Modelling productivity levels in Ireland and Northern Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS152.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Border poll; Brexit; Northern Ireland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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