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Dynamic Persistence of Primary Commodity Prices

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  • Atanu Ghoshray

Abstract

This article examines the persistence of shocks to international commodity prices from 1900 to 2008 using the updated Grilli Yang Index. The main innovation of this study is that it determines whether commodity prices are characterized by multiple changes in persistence. Specifically, bootstrap methods are used to estimate persistence, and the associated half-life shocks are calculated. We find that the persistence of shocks can vary widely depending on the individual commodity and the time period. The results suggest that policy-makers need to exercise caution when introducing measures to cushion the effect of shocks to world commodity prices. Copyright 2013, Oxford University Press.

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  • Atanu Ghoshray, 2013. "Dynamic Persistence of Primary Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(1), pages 153-164.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:95:y:2013:i:1:p:153-164
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aas130
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    Cited by:

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    3. Tony Addison & Atanu Ghoshray & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2016. "Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and Their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 47-61, February.
    4. Otero, Jesús & Argüello, Ricardo & Oviedo, Juan Daniel & Ramírez, Manuel, 2018. "Explaining coffee price differentials in terms of chemical markers: Evidence from a pairwise approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 190-201.
    5. Miao, Ruiqing & Hennessy, David A. & FENG, HONGLI, 2013. "Native Grassland Conversion: the Roles of Risk Intervention and Switching Costs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149865, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. David Ubilava, 2018. "The Role of El Niño Southern Oscillation in Commodity Price Movement and Predictability," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(1), pages 239-263.
    7. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Mora-García, Claudio & Mulder, Nanno, 2021. "Speculation and price volatility in the coffee market," Documentos de Proyectos 46923, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. Asgari, Mahdi & Reed, Michael, 2015. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Persistence to Shocks in the United States," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205531, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Ruiqing Miao & David A. Hennessy & Hongli Feng, 2014. "Sodbusting, Crop Insurance, and Sunk Conversion Costs," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(4), pages 601-622.
    10. Tony Addison & Atanu Ghoshray & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2016. "Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and Their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 47-61, February.
    11. Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resources prices: Evidence from the hybrid TVP-VAR model with large system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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