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Global Liquidity and Financial Stress: Evidence from Major Emerging Economies

Author

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  • Emrah I. Cevik
  • Nuket Kirci-Cevik
  • Sel Dibooglu

Abstract

We examine the relationship between financial stress and global liquidity for the so-called fragile five emerging economies (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey). By using an extensive set of variables that take into account the structural characteristics of these economies, we construct a financial stress index. We then use a Markov regime switching model to identify the high financial stress episodes. We examine periods of heightened financial stress and its relationship to high incidence of domestic and global disturbances. Finally, we construct a global financial liquidity index and assess the relationship between financial stress and global liquidity. Using a bivariate Markov regime switching VAR model, we find a regime-dependent relation between global liquidity and financial stress. Moreover, global liquidity shocks seem to strain these emerging economies in such a way that global illiquidity heightens financial stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Emrah I. Cevik & Nuket Kirci-Cevik & Sel Dibooglu, 2016. "Global Liquidity and Financial Stress: Evidence from Major Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(12), pages 2790-2807, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:12:p:2790-2807
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1140456
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    Cited by:

    1. Alandejani, Maha & Kutan, Ali M. & Samargandi, Nahla, 2017. "Do Islamic banks fail more than conventional banks?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 135-155.
    2. Dibooglu, Sel & Cevik, Emrah I. & Gillman, Max, 2022. "Gold, silver, and the US dollar as harbingers of financial calm and distress," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-210.
    3. Viorica CHIRILA & Ciprian CHIRILA, 2018. "Effects of US Monetary Policy on Eastern European Financial Markets," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10(2), pages 149-166, August.
    4. Altınkeski, Buket Kırcı & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2022. "Financial stress transmission between the U.S. and the Euro Area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Tai-Hock Kuek & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip, 2020. "Financial Vulnerability and Economic Dynamics in Malaysia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 55-73.
    6. Harun, Cicilia A. & Taruna, Aditya Anta & Ramdani,, 2021. "Capturing the nonlinear impact in distress state: Enhancing scenario design of stress test," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 265-288.

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