IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mcb/jmoncb/v45y2013i4p559-590.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evidence on the Relationship between Housing and Consumption in the United States: A State-Level Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • CHADI S. ABDALLAH
  • WILLIAM D. LASTRAPES

Abstract

We estimate the dynamic effects of U.S. housing market shocks on state‐level spending and home prices from a dynamic common factor model, and identify housing demand and supply shocks using a sign‐restrictions approach. While state‐level spending and house prices gradually respond positively and persistently to aggregate housing demand shocks, there is significant variation across states in the magnitude of these responses. Cross‐state regressions of the estimated responses on an index of mortgage market development suggest that spending in states with greater opportunities for home equity borrowing is more sensitive to housing demand shocks than in states with fewer opportunities, which is consistent with the prominence of a “collateral” channel over a “wealth” channel in explaining the link between housing and the overall economy.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Chadi S. Abdallah & William D. Lastrapes, 2013. "Evidence on the Relationship between Housing and Consumption in the United States: A State-Level Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 559-590, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i:4:p:559-590
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    2. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jiri Slacalek, 2011. "How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 55-79, February.
    3. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    5. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    6. Charles Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2009. "The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect," NBER Working Papers 15075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2002. "Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 149-185.
    8. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2004. "Consumption, house prices, and collateral constraints: a structural econometric analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 304-320, December.
    9. Geweke, John & Zhou, Guofu, 1996. "Measuring the Pricing Error of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 557-587.
    10. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2009. "Do credit constraints amplify macroeconomic fluctuations?," Working Paper Series 2009-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    12. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt44k6g6vx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    13. Lastrapes, William D., 2005. "Estimating and identifying vector autoregressions under diagonality and block exogeneity restrictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 75-81, April.
    14. Sumit Agarwal & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2007. "The Reaction of Consumer Spending and Debt to Tax Rebates-Evidence from Consumer Credit Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 986-1019, December.
    15. Warnock, Veronica Cacdac & Warnock, Francis E., 2008. "Markets and housing finance," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 239-251, September.
    16. Chadi S. Abdallah & William D. Lastrapes, 2012. "Home Equity Lending and Retail Spending: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Texas," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 94-125, October.
    17. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1319-1347, October.
    18. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    19. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
    20. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    21. Karen M. Pence, 2006. "Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 177-182, February.
    22. Francis Neville & Owyang Michael T. & Sekhposyan Tatevik, 2012. "The Local Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, March.
    23. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
    24. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2010. "The dynamic effects of monetary policy: A structural factor model approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 203-216, March.
    25. Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2011. "Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from US States 1," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3139-3186.
    26. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Some Issues in Using Sign Restrictions for Identifying Structural VARs," NCER Working Paper Series 14, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Agarwal, Sumit & Ambrose, Brent W. & Diop, Moussa, 2022. "Minimum wage increases and eviction risk," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2015. "What drives the global interest rate," Globalization Institute Working Papers 241, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Kuhelika De & Ryan A. Compton & Daniel C. Giedeman & Gary A. Hoover, 2021. "Macroeconomic shocks and racial labor market differences," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(2), pages 680-704, October.
    4. Sangyup Choi & Jaehun Jeong & Dohyeon Park & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "News or animal spirits? Consumer confidence and economic activity: Redux," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 960-966, August.
    5. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    6. Erkmen G. Aslim & Shin‐Yi Chou & Kuhelika De, 2024. "Business cycles and healthcare employment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 2123-2161, September.
    7. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM)," Technical Reports 123, Bank of Canada.
    8. Kuhelika De & Ryan A. Compton & Daniel C. Giedeman & Gary A. Hoover, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Racial Labour Market Differences in the U.S," CESifo Working Paper Series 8004, CESifo.
    9. Chi-Young Choi & Soojin Jo, 2020. "How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices? – Evidence from U.S. Cities," Globalization Institute Working Papers 398, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    10. De, Kuhelika & Sun, Wei, 2020. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? Evidence from the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-9.
    11. Chak Hung Jack Cheng & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu, 2020. "Nonlinear Effects of Mortgage Spreads Over the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1593-1611, September.
    12. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2020. "Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    13. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "Oil prices and the economy: A global perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2014-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Bing Zhu & Lingxiao Li & David H. Downs & Steffen Sebastian, 2019. "New Evidence on Housing Wealth and Consumption Channels," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 51-79, January.
    15. Lingxiao Li & Bing Zhu, 2020. "Housing Wealth, Consumption Channels and Mortgage Liberalization," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(4), pages 433-465.
    16. Anping Chen & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2016. "Output Shocks In China: Do The Distributional Effects Depend On The Regional Source?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 16-20, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    17. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    2. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
    3. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
    4. Esteban Prieto & Sandra Eickmeier & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Time Variation in Macro‐Financial Linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1215-1233, November.
    5. Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Housing Booms, And Financial (Im)Balances," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 830-860, June.
    6. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2017. "Collateral constraints and macroeconomic asymmetries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 28-49.
    7. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-476 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
    10. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Duarte, Joao B. & Mann, Samuel, 2020. "One Money, Many Markets: Monetary Transmission and Housing Financing in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 14968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Chen, Xin & Qin, Yaohua & Xiao, He & Zhang, Yifei, 2019. "Microfinancing and Home-purchase Restrictions: Evidence from the Online “Peer-to-Peer” Lending in China," MPRA Paper 95375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2014. "House Price Gains and U.S. Household Spending from 2002 to 2006," NBER Working Papers 20152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Cheng, Han-Liang & Mao, Ching-Sheng, 2012. "House price, mortgage premium, and business fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1388-1398.
    16. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Manoel Bittencourt, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Panel VARs," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 1133-1154, November.
    17. John N. Muellbauer, 2007. "Housing, credit and consumer expenditure," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267-334.
    18. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    19. Marc Anderes, 2021. "Housing Demand Shocks and Households Balance Sheets," KOF Working papers 21-492, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    20. Stolbov, M., 2012. "Financial Accelerator Theory and the Russian Mortgage Market," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 79-98.
    21. Manfred M. Fischer & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer & Petra Staufer‐Steinnocher, 2021. "The Dynamic Impact of Monetary Policy on Regional Housing Prices in the United States," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1039-1068, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i:4:p:559-590. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.