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Jánossy elmélete az új növekedési elmélet tükrében
[Jánossy's theory in the light of the new growth theory]

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  • Tarján, Tamás

Abstract

A hosszú távú idősorok vizsgálatának legnagyobb hazai úttörője Jánossy Ferenc volt, aki a hatvanas években megalkotta híres trendvonal-elméletét, és ennek segítségével majdnem egy évtizeddel korábban megjósolta a hetvenes évek nagy világgazdasági visszaesését. A történelmi idősorok készítésének legismertebb nemzetközi szaktekintélye pedig Angus Maddison, aki 56 országra vonatkozóan 1820-tól napjainkig készített idősorokat a legfontosabb demográfiai és makromutatókról. Mindketten azon kívül, hogy vizsgálati módszereiket mind a történelmi, mind a számszerű megközelítés egyaránt jellemez arra a következtetésre jutottak, hogy a hosszú távú gazdasági növekedést biztosító termelési tényezők közül a humán tőkéé a legfontosabb szerep. A jelen cikk fő célja, hogy eredményeiket szembesítse az úgynevezett új növekedéselmélet legújabb modelljeivel és eredményeivel, amelyek a humán tőke legfontosabb termelési tényezőként való kiemelésével az utóbbi másfél évtizedben mutatták meg oroszlánkörmüket".

Suggested Citation

  • Tarján, Tamás, 2000. "Jánossy elmélete az új növekedési elmélet tükrében [Jánossy's theory in the light of the new growth theory]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 457-472.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:322
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    2. Meyer, Dietmar, 1995. "Az új növekedéselmélet [The new theory of growth]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 387-398.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    4. Bekker, Zsuzsa, 1995. "A trendvonalról a századvégen, avagy megszabadulhatunk-e múltunktól? [About the trendline at the end of the century, or: can we get rid of our past?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 420-430.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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