IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/1491.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A gazdasági stagnálás "színe" és fonákja. Mivel jár együtt az exporttöbblet és az adósságcsökkenés?
[The bright" and gloomy side of economic stagnation]

Author

Listed:
  • Oblath, Gábor
  • Halpern, László

Abstract

Magyarország európai összehasonlításban kiemelkedő exporttöbblete és az ország ebből is következő jelentős nettó külföldi hitelnyújtása voltaképpen tükörképe a fizetési mérleg pénzügyi mérlegében regisztrált jókora hiánynak (a tőke kiáramlásának) és a magánszektor, illetve az ország mérséklődő külső eladósodásának. E folyamatok hátterében azonban a gazdaság lehangoló jövedelmi, fogyasztási és beruházási folyamatai állnak. Ezért indokolatlan egyfelől sikerként ünnepelni az exporttöbbletet, másfelől sajnálkozni a tőke kiáramlásán és az alacsony (csökkenő) beruházási rátán. Ezek a jelenségek ugyanarról szólnak különböző metszetben, s azokat még csak nem is közgazdasági teóriák, hanem egyszerű mérlegösszefüggések kapcsolják össze. Miközben nemzetközi összehasonlításban számszerűsítjük ezeket, egy félreértésre és egy mellőzött jelenségre is felhívjuk a figyelmet. A 2012-ben tapasztalt jelentős tőkekiáramlást olykor "tőkemenekítésként" értelmezik, ez azonban nem olvasható ki az adatokból. Ellenben alig fordul figyelem arra, hogy a magánszektor nettó (amortizáció nélkül számított) beruházásai példátlanul alacsony szintre, a GDP 1 százalékára csökkentek. Beruházási fordulat nélkül sem az exportnövekedés fennmaradására, sem a gazdaság élénkülésére nem lehet számítani, ám a beruházások és a lakossági fogyasztás remélhető emelkedése növekvő importtal jár, ez leapaszthatja az exporttöbbletet, ami viszont átmenetileg visszafoghatja a gazdasági növekedést. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E65, F32, F34.

Suggested Citation

  • Oblath, Gábor & Halpern, László, 2014. "A gazdasági stagnálás "színe" és fonákja. Mivel jár együtt az exporttöbblet és az adósságcsökkenés? [The bright" and gloomy side of economic stagnation]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 757-800.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1491
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=1491
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlos Cuerpo & Inês Drumond & Julia Lendvai & Peter Pontuch & Rafal Raciborski, 2013. "Indebtedness, Deleveraging Dynamics and Macroeconomic Adjustment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 477, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Holger Görg & David Greenaway, 2016. "Much Ado about Nothing? Do Domestic Firms Really Benefit from Foreign Direct Investment?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: MULTINATIONAL ENTERPRISES AND HOST COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT Volume 53: World Scientific Studies in International Economics, chapter 9, pages 163-189, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. repec:bla:etrans:v:15:y:2007:i::p:781-805 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
    5. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    7. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    8. Charles Wyplosz, 2011. "Debt Sustainability Assessment: Mission Impossible," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    9. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "Financial globalization and exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    11. Ronald MacDonald & Flávio Vieira, "undated". "A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth," Working Papers 2010_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    12. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 67-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Balazs Egert, 2013. "The 90% Public Debt Threshold: The Rise & Fall of a Stylised Fact," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1048, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    14. Balẳ Égert, 2015. "The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3756-3770, July.
    15. Maurico Obstfeld, 2004. "External adjustment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 541-568, December.
    16. Beata Smarzynska Javorcik, 2004. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers Through Backward Linkages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 605-627, June.
    17. Kónya, István, 2011. "Növekedés és felzárkózás Magyarországon, 1995-2009 [Growth and convergence in Hungary, 1995-2009]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 393-411.
    18. Sorin Krammer, 2010. "International R&D spillovers in emerging markets: The impact of trade and foreign direct investment," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 591-623.
    19. Holger Görg & Eric Strobl, 2016. "Multinational Companies And Productivity Spillovers: A Meta-Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: MULTINATIONAL ENTERPRISES AND HOST COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT Volume 53: World Scientific Studies in International Economics, chapter 8, pages 145-161, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep16 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2011. "Estimating vertical spillovers from FDI: Why results vary and what the true effect is," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 234-244.
    22. Surjit S. Bhalla, 2012. "Devaluing to Prosperity: Misaligned Currencies and Their Growth Consequences," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6239, April.
    23. Klaus E Meyer & Evis Sinani, 2009. "When and where does foreign direct investment generate positive spillovers? A meta-analysis," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 40(7), pages 1075-1094, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lengyel, Imre & Varga, Attila, 2018. "A magyar gazdasági növekedés térbeli korlátai - helyzetkép és alapvető dilemmák [The spatial limits of economic growth in Hungary: An overview and some dilemmas]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 499-524.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Farole & Deborah Winkler, 2014. "Making Foreign Direct Investment Work for Sub-Saharan Africa : Local Spillovers and Competitiveness in Global Value Chains," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 16390.
    2. Pierre Blanchard & Claude Mathieu, 2016. "Multinationals and domestic firms in France: who gains from knowledge spillovers?," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 97(2), pages 109-125, September.
    3. Victor Stolzenburg & Daria Taglioni & Deborah Winkler, 2019. "Economic upgrading through global value chain participation: which policies increase the value-added gains?," Chapters, in: Stefano Ponte & Gary Gereffi & Gale Raj-Reichert (ed.), Handbook on Global Value Chains, chapter 30, pages 483-505, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Petr Pavlínek & Pavla Žížalová, 2016. "Linkages and spillovers in global production networks: firm-level analysis of the Czech automotive industry," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 331-363.
    5. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    6. Di Ubaldo, Mattia & Siedschlag, Iulia, 2022. "Could spillovers from multinationals affect the trade activities of local firms?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    7. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2012. "Survey Article: Publication Bias in the Literature on Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(10), pages 1375-1396, October.
    8. Isaksson, Olov H.D. & Simeth, Markus & Seifert, Ralf W., 2016. "Knowledge spillovers in the supply chain: Evidence from the high tech sectors," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 699-706.
    9. Teixeira, Aurora A.C. & Tavares-Lehmann, Ana Teresa, 2014. "Human capital intensity in technology-based firms located in Portugal: Does foreign ownership matter?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 737-748.
    10. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2011. "Estimating vertical spillovers from FDI: Why results vary and what the true effect is," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 234-244.
    11. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2009. "Where did all the borrowing go? A forensic analysis of the U.S. external position," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-199, June.
    12. Danai Christopoulou & Nikolaos Papageorgiadis & Chengang Wang & Georgios Magkonis, 2021. "IPR Law Protection and Enforcement and the Effect on Horizontal Productivity Spillovers from Inward FDI to Domestic Firms: A Meta-analysis," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 235-266, April.
    13. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "The ‘other half’ of the public debt–economic growth relationship: a note on Reinhart and Rogoff," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 20-28, April.
    14. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    15. Pavla NIKOLOVOVÁ, 2013. "Sourcing Patterns of FDI Activity and Their Impact on the Domestic Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(3), pages 288-302, July.
    16. Sara L. McGaughey & Pascalis Raimondos & Lisbeth La Cour, 2018. "What is a Foreign Firm? Implications for Productivity Spillovers," CESifo Working Paper Series 7109, CESifo.
    17. Ziliang Deng & Rod Falvey & Adam Blake, 2013. "Quantifying Foreign Direct Investment Productivity Spillovers in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Model," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 369-389, December.
    18. Hanousek, Jan & Kocenda, Evzen & Maurel, Mathilde, 2011. "Direct and indirect effects of FDI in emerging European markets: A survey and meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 301-322, September.
    19. Shi He & Yum K. Kwan & Hongzhong Fan, 2019. "In search of FDI horizontal spillovers in China: evidence from meta-analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1505-1527, May.
    20. Gabor Oblath & Eva Palocz & David Popper & Akos Valentinyi, 2015. "Economic convergence and structural change in the new member states of the European Union Convergence in volumes, prices and the share of services, with implications for wage convergence: an expenditu," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1544, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1491. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.