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Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule

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  • Pierre Siklos
  • Martin Bohl

Abstract

This paper estimates forward-looking and forecast-based Taylor rules for France, Germany, Italy, and the euro area. Performing extensive tests for over-identifying restrictions and instrument relevance, we find that asset prices can be highly relevant as instruments in policy rules. While asset prices improve Taylor rule estimates, different assets prove most relevant across countries and this result could be seen as complicating the tasks of the European Central Bank. Encompassing tests show that forecast-based outperform forward-looking Taylor rules. A policy implication is that central banks ought to release their own forecasts and the basis upon which they are generated.
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  • Pierre Siklos & Martin Bohl, 2009. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 39-59, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:39-59
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-007-9063-3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pierre L. Siklos, 2009. "As Good As It Gets? The International Dimension to Canada's Monetary Policy Strategy Choices," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 292, July.
    3. Hamza Bennani, 2012. "National influences inside the ECB: an assessment from central bankers' statements," Working Papers hal-00992646, HAL.
    4. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-138.
    5. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlik, 2009. "Financial instability prevention," CAMA Working Papers 2009-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2011. "Macroprudential Policies and Financial Stability," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(277), pages 318-334, June.
    7. Papadamou, Stephanos & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2017. "Does central bank independence affect stock market volatility?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 855-864.
    8. Hamza Bennani, 2013. "Does the ECB consider the persistence of inflation differentials?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2129-2139.
    9. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre Siklos, 2024. "The Importance of Sound Monetary Policy: Some Lessons for Today from Canada’s Experience with Floating Exchange Rates since 1950," Working Papers 320, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    10. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2011. "Official Dollarization As a Monetary Regime: Its Effectson El Salvador," IMF Working Papers 2011/129, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2024. "The Importance of Sound Monetary Policy: Some Lessons for Today from Canada’s Experience with Floating Exchange Rates Since 1950," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(3), pages 415-453, September.
    12. Richard C.K. Burdekin & King Banaian & Mark Hallerberg & Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "Fiscal and monetary institutions and policies: onward and upward?," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(4), pages 340-354, November.
    13. Aleš Bulíř & Jan Vlček, 2023. "Monetary Policy is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 93-112, February.
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    15. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    16. Siklos, Pierre L., 2006. "Hungary's entry into the euro area: Lessons for prospective members from a monetary policy perspective," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 366-384, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy reaction functions; Asset prices; Instruments; European Central Bank; E52; E58; C52;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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