IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/ecopln/v52y2019i4d10.1007_s10644-018-9231-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock returns and inflation: a tale of two periods in India

Author

Listed:
  • Niyati Bhanja

    (MICA - The School of Ideas)

  • Arif Billah Dar

    (Shri Mata Vaishno Devi University)

Abstract

The relationship between stock returns and inflation has been tested in relation to hedge ability of stocks against inflation. The study covers a period of over five decades (1960–2014) and examines both pre- and post-structural economic reform experiences in India. This empirical analysis exploits the techniques of both Discrete and Continuous wavelet transforms. In the methodological framework of Wavelets, first it analyses the individual volatility characteristics of stock returns and inflation using wavelet power spectra, followed by their relationship at different time horizons. The empirical evidence suggests the two variables to be independent across time horizons lending support to stocks as instrument of hedge against inflation. The results are robust to techniques and sub-samples, as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Niyati Bhanja & Arif Billah Dar, 2019. "Stock returns and inflation: a tale of two periods in India," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 413-438, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:52:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10644-018-9231-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-018-9231-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10644-018-9231-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10644-018-9231-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ram, Rati & Spencer, David E, 1983. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 463-470, June.
    2. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Can common stocks provide a hedge against inflation? Evidence from African countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 91-100, August.
    3. Chatrath, Arjun & Ramchander, Sanjay & Song, Frank, 1996. "Stock prices, inflation and output: Evidence from India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 237-245.
    4. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 186-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    6. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    7. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    8. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2006. "Stock returns and inflation in Greece: A Markov switching approach," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 76-94.
    9. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2017. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1794-1807, April.
    10. Kul B. Luintel & Krishna Paudyal, 2006. "Are Common Stocks A Hedge Against Inflation?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-19, March.
    11. James, Christopher & Koreisha, Sergio & Partch, Megan, 1985. "A VARMA Analysis of the Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Real Output, and Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1375-1384, December.
    12. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. "Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-1603, September.
    13. Barnes, Michelle & Boyd, John H. & Smith, Bruce D., 1999. "Inflation and asset returns," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 737-754, April.
    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
    15. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Azevedo, Nuno & Soares, Maria Joana, 2008. "Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2863-2878.
    16. Schotman, Peter C. & Schweitzer, Mark, 2000. "Horizon sensitivity of the inflation hedge of stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 301-315, November.
    17. Wei, K. C. John & Wong, K. Matthew, 1992. "Tests of inflation and industry portfolio stock returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 77-94, February.
    18. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 199-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Paul Harrison & Harold H. Zhang, 1999. "An Investigation Of The Risk And Return Relation At Long Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 399-408, August.
    20. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2012. "Stock returns and inflation: Evidence from quantile regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 283-286.
    21. Kim, Sangbae & In, Francis, 2005. "The relationship between stock returns and inflation: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 435-444, June.
    22. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    23. Durai, S. Raja Sethu & Bhaduri, Saumitra N., 2009. "Stock prices, inflation and output: Evidence from wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1089-1092, September.
    24. Bodie, Zvi, 1976. "Common Stocks as a Hedge against Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 459-470, May.
    25. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    26. Rushdi, Mustabshira & Kim, Jae H. & Silvapulle, Param, 2012. "ARDL bounds tests and robust inference for the long run relationship between real stock returns and inflation in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 535-543.
    27. Niyati Bhanja & Arif Billah Dar & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni, 2012. "Are Stock Prices Hedge Against Inflation? A Revisit over Time and Frequencies in India," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 4(3), pages 199-213, September.
    28. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    29. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2002. "The relation between asset returns and inflation at short and long horizons," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 101-118, April.
    30. Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2003. "The stock return-inflation puzzle and the asymmetric causality in stock returns, inflation and real activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 155-160, August.
    31. Ali Anari & James Kolari, 2001. "Stock Prices And Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 587-602, December.
    32. Breitung, Jorg & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2003. "Corrigendum to "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration" [J. Econom. 108 (2002) 343-363]," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 401-404, December.
    33. Arif Billah Dar & Niyati Bhanja, 2018. "Is China a safe haven for Asian Tigers?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 113-133, May.
    34. Solnik, Bruno & Solnik, Vincent, 1997. "A multi-country test of the Fisher model for stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 289-301, December.
    35. Park, Kwangwoo & Ratti, Ronald A, 2000. "Real Activity, Inflation, Stock Returns, and Monetary Policy," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 59-77, May.
    36. Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar, 2015. "“The beauty of gold is, it loves bad news”: evidence from three major gold consumers," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 187-208, November.
    37. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Stock Returns and Inflation: A Long-Horizon Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1346-1355, December.
    38. Lintner, John, 1975. "Inflation and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 259-280, May.
    39. Gultekin, N Bulent, 1983. "Stock Market Returns and Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 663-673, June.
    40. Gultekin, N Bulent, 1983. "Stock Market Returns and Inflation: Evidence from Other Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, March.
    41. Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2003. "The stock return-inflation puzzle and the asymmetric causality in stock returns, inflation and real activity," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    2. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2015. "Stock returns and inflation in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 23-31.
    3. Nassar S. Al-Nassar & Razzaque H. Bhatti, 2019. "Are common stocks a hedge against inflation in emerging markets?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 421-455, July.
    4. Arnold, Stephan & Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "What do scientists know about inflation hedging?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 187-214.
    5. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2017. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1794-1807, April.
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    8. Tiwari Aviral Kumar & Cunado Juncal & Gupta Rangan & Wohar Mark E., 2019. "Are stock returns an inflation hedge for the UK? Evidence from a wavelet analysis using over three centuries of data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-17, June.
    9. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Can common stocks provide a hedge against inflation? Evidence from African countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 91-100, August.
    10. Claudiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2016. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: Testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Papers 1603.01231, arXiv.org.
    11. Avishek Bhandari & Kamaiah Bandi, 2018. "On the Dynamics of Inflation-Stock Returns in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 89-99, March.
    12. Dragos Stefan Oprea, 2014. "The Fisher effect: Evidence from the Romanian Stock Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(5), pages 637-644, May.
    13. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    14. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Adeolu O. Adewuyi & Olabanji B. Awodumi & David Roubaud, 2022. "Relationship between stock returns and inflation: New evidence from the US using wavelet and causality methods," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4515-4540, October.
    15. Adel A. Al-Sharkas & Marwan Al-Zoubi, 2011. "Stock Prices and Inflation: Evidence from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Morocco," Working Papers 653, Economic Research Forum, revised 12 Jan 2011.
    16. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. Du, Ding, 2006. "Monetary policy, stock returns and inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 36-54.
    18. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Michael Weber, 2018. "Low Inflation: High Default Risk AND High Equity Valuations," NBER Working Papers 25317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Heimonen, Kari, 2010. "Money and equity returns in the Euro area," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 152-169.
    20. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Ijaz Ur Rehman, 2016. "Stocks as Hedge against Inflation in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(6), pages 1280-1295, December.
    21. Dirk Brounen & Piet Eichholtz & Stefan Staetmans & Marcel Theebe, 2014. "Inflation Protection from Homeownership: Long-Run Evidence, 1814–2008," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 662-689, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedge; Wavelet; Stock prices; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:52:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10644-018-9231-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.