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Chaos in Foreign Exchange Markets: A Sceptical View

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  • Brooks, Chris

Abstract

This paper tests directly for deterministic chaos in a set of ten daily Sterling-denominated exchange rates by calculating the largest Lyapunov exponent. Although in an earlier paper, strong evidence of nonlinearity has been shown, chaotic tendencies are noticeably absent from all series considered using this state-of-the-art technique. Doubt is cast on many recent papers which claim to have tested for the presence of chaos in economic data sets, based on what are argued here to be inappropriate techniques. Citation Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers.

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  • Brooks, Chris, 1998. "Chaos in Foreign Exchange Markets: A Sceptical View," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 265-281, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:11:y:1998:i:3:p:265-81
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniela Federici & Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2011. "The Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate: Chaotic or Non-Chaotic?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3420, CESifo.
    2. Mishra, Ritesh Kumar & Sehgal, Sanjay & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2011. "A search for long-range dependence and chaotic structure in Indian stock market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 96-104, May.
    3. Adil Yilmaz & Gazanfer Unal, 2016. "Chaos in Fractionally Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic Processes," Papers 1601.08099, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    4. Federici, Daniela & Gandolfo, Giancarlo, 2012. "The Euro/Dollar exchange rate: Chaotic or non-chaotic? A continuous time model with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 670-681.

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