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Pathways to Truth: Comparing Different Upscaling Options for an Agent-Based Sector Model

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Abstract

Simulation results can be highly sensitive to the way agents are upscaled to a larger organizational and spatial level. This paper tests an ex-post validation method for forecasting models by using old base years and forecasting into recent years for which observed data is already available. Our case in point is a comparison between different upscaling methods in the agent-based agricultural sector model SWISSland. It is shown that individual-farm extrapolation factors strongly enhance alignment with the total population in the base year. However, they may cause inconsistencies in those agent-based models in which relations between the farms are an important part. Therefore, an adjustment of the sample by making almost no use of some farms whilst making highly disproportionate use of others turned out to be the most suitable method for the SWISSland model.

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  • Albert Zimmermann & Anke Möhring & Gabriele Mack & Ali Ferjani & Stefan Mann, 2015. "Pathways to Truth: Comparing Different Upscaling Options for an Agent-Based Sector Model," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(4), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2014-102-3
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    1. Alena Schmidt & Magdalena Necpalova & Albert Zimmermann & Stefan Mann & Johan Six & Gabriele Mack, 2017. "Direct and Indirect Economic Incentives to Mitigate Nitrogen Surpluses: A Sensitivity Analysis," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(4), pages 1-7.
    2. Zantsi, Siphe & Mack, Gabriele & Möhring, Anke & Cloete, Kandas & Greyling, Jan C & Mann, Stefan, 2024. "How can South Africa’s land redistribution succeed? An agent-based modelling approach for assessing structural and economic impacts," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344233, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    3. Utomo, Dhanan Sarwo & Onggo, Bhakti Stephan & Eldridge, Stephen, 2018. "Applications of agent-based modelling and simulation in the agri-food supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 794-805.
    4. Huber, Robert & Bakker, Martha & Balmann, Alfons & Berger, Thomas & Bithell, Mike & Brown, Calum & Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne & Xiong, Hang & Le, Quang Bao & Mack, Gabriele & Meyfroidt, Patrick & Millingt, 2018. "Representation of decision-making in European agricultural agent-based models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 143-160.
    5. Schmidt, Alena & Necpalova, Magdalena & Mack, Gabriele & Möhring, Anke & Six, Johan, 2021. "A food tax only minimally reduces the N surplus of Swiss agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    6. Egger, Claudine & Plutzar, Christoph & Mayer, Andreas & Dullinger, Iwona & Dullinger, Stefan & Essl, Franz & Gattringer, Andreas & Bohner, Andreas & Haberl, Helmut & Gaube, Veronika, 2022. "Using the SECLAND model to project future land-use until 2050 under climate and socioeconomic change in the LTSER region Eisenwurzen (Austria)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    7. Mack, G. & Finger, R. & Ammann, J. & El Benni, N., 2023. "Modelling policies towards pesticide-free agricultural production systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    8. Schaefer, David & Britz, Wolfgang & Kuhn, Till, 2020. "Modelling policy induced manure transports at large scale using an agent-based simulation model," Discussion Papers 305270, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    9. Schmidt, Alena & Mack, Gabriele & Möhring, Anke & Mann, Stefan & El Benni, Nadja, 2019. "Stricter cross-compliance standards in Switzerland: Economic and environmental impacts at farm- and sector-level," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    10. Mack, Gabriele & Ferjani, Ali & Mohring, Anke & Zimmerman, Albert & Mann, Stefan, 2015. "How did farmers act? An ex-post validation of normative and positive mathematical programming for an agent-based sector model," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212201, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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