IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ime/imemes/v20y2002i1p33-56.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Components of Inflation Rate: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis for Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Mio, Hitoshi

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

I estimate a bivariate output-price structural vector autoregression (VAR) model for Japan to decompose inflation rate time-series into two components explained by aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS) shocks. For the model's identifying restriction, I assume that the long- run elasticity of output with respect to permanent changes in price due to AD shocks is zero; i.e., an AD shock has no long-run impact on the level of output. Dynamic properties of the estimated model are shown to be generally consistent with the predictions of the conventional AS-AD framework. The main features of the historical decomposition are the following: (1) the inflation rate explained by the AD shock shows a procyclical swing since 1970; (2) the inflation rate explained by the AS shock temporarily spikes during the two oil crises and experiences a large countercyclical swing in the 1990s; and (3) the coincidence of large and negative AS and AD shocks explains the combination of price stability and output stagnation during two recessions in the 1990s. These results are qualitatively robust to the sectoral shocks, alternative choices for the price variable, and assumptions for the lag length of VAR and the long-run elasticity of output with respect to permanent changes in price due to AD shocks. However, the bivariate approach does not allow the identification of more than three types of shocks with different dynaic effects on output and price. It might be necessary to expand the model to deal with this limitation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mio, Hitoshi, 2002. "Identifying Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Components of Inflation Rate: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(1), pages 33-56, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:20:y:2002:i:1:p:33-56
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me20-1-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:onb:oenbwp:33 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ashima Goyal & Sritama Ray, 2022. "Exploring correlations between aggregate demand and supply shocks in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-004, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Claudio Morana, 2005. "The Japanese deflation: has it had real effects? Could it have been avoided?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1337-1352.
    3. Carlos A. Rodríguez, 2018. "Fuentes de las fluctuaciones macroeconómicas en Puerto Rico\Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Puerto Rico," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 33(2), pages 219-252.
    4. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2006. "Stock returns and inflation in Greece: A Markov switching approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 76-94.
    5. Ashima Goyal & Sanchit Arora, 2012. "Deriving India's Potential growth from theory and structure," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-018, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    6. Ogawa, Eiji & Iwatsubo, Kentaro, 2009. "External adjustments and coordinated exchange rate policy in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 225-239, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:20:y:2002:i:1:p:33-56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kinken (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.