IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2021q2a4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What Does "Below, but Close to, 2 Percent" Mean? Assessing the ECB's Reaction Function with Real-Time Data

Author

Listed:
  • Maritta Paloviita

    (Bank of Finland)

  • Markus Haavio

    (Bank of Finland)

  • Pirkka Jalasjoki

    (Bank of Finland)

  • Juha Kilponen

    (Bank of Finland)

Abstract

Using unique real-time quarterly macroeconomic projections of the Eurosystem/ECB staff, we estimate competing specifications of the ECB's monetary policy reaction function. We consider specifications which include inflation and output growth projections, a past inflation gap, a time-varying natural real interest rate, and different inflation targets. Our first key finding is that the de facto inflation target of the ECB lies between 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent. Our second key finding is that the ECB reacts both to short-term macroeconomic projections and to past deviations of inflation from its de facto target.

Suggested Citation

  • Maritta Paloviita & Markus Haavio & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Juha Kilponen, 2021. "What Does "Below, but Close to, 2 Percent" Mean? Assessing the ECB's Reaction Function with Real-Time Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 125-169, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2021:q:2:a:4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb21q2a4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb21q2a4.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    3. Robert King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "What Should the Monetary Authority Do When Prices Are Sticky?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 349-404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    7. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob Haan, 2011. "Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 41-58, April.
    8. Fujiwara, Ippei, 2005. "Is the central bank's publication of economic forecasts influential?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 255-261, December.
    9. Lucia Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon Potter, 2014. "Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 483-500, October.
    10. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel Martins, 2008. "Testing for asymmetries in the preferences of the euro-area monetary policymaker," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(13), pages 1651-1667.
    11. Carin van der Cruijsen & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2015. "How Much Does the Public Know about the ECB’s Monetary Policy? Evidence from a Survey of Dutch Households," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 169-218, December.
    12. Bletzinger, Tilman & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Lower for longer: The case of the ECB," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 123-127.
    13. Kenny, Geoff & Dovern, Jonas, 2017. "The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?," Working Paper Series 1999, European Central Bank.
    14. Paolo Surico, 2007. "The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(1), pages 115-135, March.
    15. Michael Woodford, 2007. "The Case for Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
    16. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob De Haan, 2008. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Expectations Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(3), pages 473-488, September.
    17. Paolo Surico, 2003. "Asymmetric Reaction Functions for the Euro Area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(1), pages 44-57.
    18. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2009. "Inflation targeting credibility and reputation: The consequences for the interest rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1228-1238, November.
    19. John B. Taylor, 2017. "Rules Versus Discretion: Assessing the Debate Over the Conduct of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 24149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2020. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-103.
    21. Brent Bundick & Andrew Lee Smith, 2018. "Did Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor U.S. Inflation Expectations?," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-4, January.
    22. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    23. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    24. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-73.
    25. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2011. "The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1842-1856, July.
    26. Fischer, B. & Lenza, M. & Pill, H. & Reichlin, L., 2009. "Monetary analysis and monetary policy in the euro area 1999-2006," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1138-1164, November.
    27. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2018. "On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 132-139.
    28. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    29. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    30. Cúrdia, Vasco & Ferrero, Andrea & Ng, Ging Cee & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2015. "Has U.S. monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 72-83.
    31. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
    32. Ikeda, Taro, 2010. "Time-varying asymmetries in central bank preferences: The case of the ECB," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1054-1066, December.
    33. Charemza, Wojciech & Ladley, Daniel, 2016. "Central banks’ forecasts and their bias: Evidence, effects and explanation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 804-817.
    34. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2011. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule During the Financial Crisis? Comparing Ex-post and Real Time Data with Real Time Forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 147-171, September.
    35. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    36. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "Inflation targeting, credibility, and non-linear Taylor rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-45.
    37. Apel, Mikael & Claussen, Carl Andreas, 2017. "Inflation targets and intervals – an overview of the issues," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue 1, pages 83-103.
    38. Stefan Gerlach & John Lewis, 2014. "ECB Reaction Functions and the Crisis of 2008," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 137-158, March.
    39. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    40. John Hutchinson & Frank Smets, 2017. "Monetary Policy in Uncertain Times: ECB Monetary Policy Since June 2014," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85(S2), pages 1-15, December.
    41. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    42. Stefan Gerlach, 2007. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB, 1999-2006: Words and Deeds," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 1-46, September.
    43. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2023. "The (not so) quiet period: Communication by ECB decision-makers during monetary policy blackout days☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Michael Ehrmann & Sarah Holton & Danielle Kedan & Gillian Phelan, 2024. "Monetary Policy Communication: Perspectives from Former Policymakers at the ECB," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 837-864, June.
    3. Bottone, Marco & Tagliabracci, Alex & Zevi, Giordano, 2022. "Inflation expectations and the ECB’s perceived inflation objective: Novel evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 15-34.
    4. Tatar, Balint, 2023. "Has the reaction function of the European Central Bank changed over time?," IMFS Working Paper Series 183, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    5. Eleonora Granziera & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis," Working Paper 2021/1, Norges Bank.
    6. Ioanna Bardaka & Athina Rentifi, 2021. "The importance of selected structural competitiveness indicators for exports: a comparative analysis between the euro area and Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 54, pages 59-78, December.
    7. Lucian Briciu & Stefan Hohberger & Luca Onorante & Beatrice Pataracchia & Marco Ratto & Lukas Vogel, 2023. "The ECB Strategy Review - Implications for the Space of Monetary Policy," European Economy - Discussion Papers 193, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: A state dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
    9. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: a State dependent analysis," Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
    10. Gökhan Ider & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Frederik Kurcz & Ben Schumann, 2024. "Friend, Not Foe - Energy Prices and European Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2089, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2022. "The (Not So) Quiet Period: Communication by ECB Decision-makers during Monetary Policy Blackout Days," CEPR Discussion Papers 15735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha, 2017. "What does "below, but close to, two percent" mean? Assessing the ECB's reaction function with real time data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2017, Bank of Finland.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_029 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha, 2017. "What does “below, but close to, two percent” mean? Assessing the ECB’s reaction function with real time data," Research Discussion Papers 29/2017, Bank of Finland.
    4. Philipp Hartman & Frank Smets, 2018. "The European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy during Its First 20 Years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 1-146.
    5. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    6. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    7. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    8. Klose, Jens, 2023. "Estimated monetary policy rules for the ECB with granular variations of forecast horizons for inflation and output," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2021. "Interest-rate setting and communication at the ECB in its first twenty years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Bauer, Christian & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2017. "Forecast uncertainty and the Taylor rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 99-116.
    11. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2020. "Interest rate setting and communication at the ECB," Working Paper Series 2443, European Central Bank.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times : Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?," Research Discussion Papers 13/2017, Bank of Finland.
    14. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2019. "Forecasting ECB Policy Rates with Different Monetary Policy Rules," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(3), pages 238-252, June.
    15. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2018. "On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 132-139.
    16. repec:udc:esteco:v:44:y:2017:i:2:p:97-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "Inflation targeting, credibility, and non-linear Taylor rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-45.
    18. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: A state dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
    19. Esther Barros-Campello & Carlos Pateiro-Rodríguez & J. Venancio Salcines-Cristal & Carlos Pateiro-López, 2017. "El esquema de objetivos de inflación: Evidencia para América Latina (1999-2015)," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 44(2 Year 20), pages 223-250, December.
    20. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    21. Bennani, Hamza, 2018. "Media coverage and ECB policy-making: Evidence from an augmented Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-38.
    22. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    23. Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Vänni, Ilona, 2020. "Reading between the lines : Using text analysis to estimate the loss function of the ECB," Research Discussion Papers 12/2020, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2021:q:2:a:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.