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Residential Investment and Economic Activity: Evidence from the Past Five Decades

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Listed:
  • Emanuel Kohlscheen

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Aaron Mehrotra

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Dubravko Mihaljek

    (Bank for International Settlements)

Abstract

We analyze the evolution and main drivers of residential investment in 15 advanced economies using a large panel with quarterly data since the 1970s. Residential investment is a notably volatile component of real GDP in all countries in the sample. Real house price growth, net migration inflows, household size, and the existing housing stock are significant drivers of residential investment across various model specifications. We detect important asymmetries: interest rate increases affect residential investment more than interest rate declines, and interest rate changes have larger effects on residential investment when its share in GDP is rising. We also show that information on residential investment significantly improves the performance of standard recession-prediction models.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuel Kohlscheen & Aaron Mehrotra & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2020. "Residential Investment and Economic Activity: Evidence from the Past Five Decades," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 287-329, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2020:q:5:a:7
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    2. Serhan Cevik & Sadhna Naik, 2024. "Bubble detective: City‐level analysis of house price cycles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 2-16, April.
    3. Mikael Randrup Byrialsen & Hamid Raza, "undated". "An Empirical Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Model for Denmark," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_942, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Vladimir ŠIMIĆ & Lena MALEŠEVIĆ PEROVIĆ, 2022. "Relevance Of Type Of Investment For Growth: Evidence From Eu-10 Countries," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 105-115, June.
    5. Mikael Randrup Byrialsen & Hamid Raza, 2022. "Household debt and macroeconomic stability: An empirical stock‐flow consistent model for the Danish economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 144-197, February.
    6. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Gabe J. de Bondt & Arne Gieseck, 2023. "Forecasting housing investment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 543-565, April.
    7. Saparyanto & Moch. Najib Imanullah, 2022. "Ius Constituendum foreign fintech investment (post/after) employment law to accelerate Indonesian economic development," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 29(1), pages 223-230, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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