Human Capital and Economic Growth in Morocco: Evidence from Bayesian Model Averaging

The paper investigates the relationship between human capital and economic growth in Morocco during the period from 1965 to 2015. In order to test this relationship we estimated a growth function using firstly the Johansen multivariate cointegration test and the Granger causality test. Secondly, we used the method of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) that takes into consideration the uncertainty related to the specification of the model studied. In the theoretical literature, the difficulty of measuring human capital is often stressed. In order to overcome this problem, we use four proxies of human capital: first, we employ the average years of schooling. Second, we use the index of the gap in life expectancy between Morocco and developed countries. Third, we integrate the qualitative aspects of education and health by constructing two composite indicators of human capital using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method. The main results of regression analysis confirm that in the specification of determinants of GDP per worker the average years of total schooling, the life expectancy index and the indicator of quality of health affect positively and significantly level of GDP per worker. However, in the specification of determinants of the growth of the GDP per worker, we found there is no proxy of human capital that affects significantly the growth of the GDP per worker. In addition, the results of Granger causality test show that only the indicator of quality of health that cause the GDP per worker. As well, these results show that the average years of total schooling and the indicator of quality of education cause the growth of GDP per worker. We suggest that the Moroccan authorities should make additional efforts to raise the level of quality of human capital especially in the health sector and increase the productivity of both public and private investment.