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How COVID-19 Pandemics Influences Chinese Economic Sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • Maksim Vasiev

    (Harbin Engineering University (China))

  • Kexin Bi

    (Harbin Engineering University (China))

  • Artem Denisov

    (Kostroma State University (Russia))

  • Vladimir Bocharnikov

    (Pacific Geographical Institute, Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Science (Russia))

Abstract

China was the first country to face the COVID-19 outbreak. Owing to the prompt and decisive actions of the authorities, and the consolidation of society, the country has overcome the peak of incidence, and economic activity is gradually recovering. The paper shows how COVID-19 affects the key industries and simulates the impact on supply and transportation channel work. Using the input-output spatial data, migration index indicators, and pandemic spread statistics, we simulate different scenarios for changes in China provinces’ production and consumption under the post-coronavirus epidemic situation. Calculations were made for 31 provinces and 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. We got a model that coronavirus outbreak disaster influences on carbon dioxide emission, level of hazardous wastes and Energy-Resource Efficiency Rating. Basing on financial and migration flows between China provinces, we chose the most effective after-coronavirus outbreak model. Our main recommendation is that one needn’t to carry out any segregation of consumers. It is necessary to distribute the damage as evenly as possible between all provinces equally. We believe that such an approach will allow the Chinese economy to suffer the least damage and recover faster. Finally, we analyze the development of the post-epidemic financial flows from China to Russia, with the horizon until 2025. In all scenarios, the temporary decline of the bi-directional is expected. The results of the study may be useful for other countries in developing policies to overcome the post-epidemic crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Maksim Vasiev & Kexin Bi & Artem Denisov & Vladimir Bocharnikov, 2020. "How COVID-19 Pandemics Influences Chinese Economic Sustainability," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 7-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:14:y:2020:i:2:p:7-22
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    File URL: https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/data/2020/06/18/1550695564/1-China-Covid-7-22.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brahmbhatt, Milan & Dutta, Arindam, 2008. "On SARS type economic effects during infectious disease outbreaks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4466, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alina Steblyanskaya & Zhen Wang & Alexander Martynov & Ai Mingye & Vladimir Artykhov & Ziming Wang & Vladimir Bocharnikov & Alena Kiselik, 2021. "New Energy-Resource Efficiency, Technological Efficiency, and Ecosystems Impact Ratings for the Sustainability of China’s Provinces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, January.
    2. Alexey Bilgaev & Suocheng Dong & Fujia Li & Hao Cheng & Arnold Tulohonov & Erzhena Sadykova & Anna Mikheeva, 2020. "Baikal Region (Russia) Development Prospects Based on the Green Economy Principles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Jialei Jiang & Eun-Mi Park & Seong-Taek Park, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 on Economic Sustainability—A Case Study of Fluctuation in Stock Prices for China and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    4. Yanwei Lyu & You Wu & Wenqiang Wang & Jinning Zhang, 2024. "The Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On Carbon Emissions: Empirical Evidence From China," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 27(1), pages 133-150, March.
    5. Ma, Qiang & Zhang, Mei & Ali, Sher & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Khan, Zeeshan, 2021. "Natural resources commodity prices volatility and economic performance: Evidence from China pre and post COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Klona, Maria, 2021. "The Days After COVID-19: A Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Epidemics and Pandemics on Long-Term Macro-Economic Performance," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 188-224, May.
    7. Michela Piccarozzi & Cecilia Silvestri & Patrizio Morganti, 2021. "COVID-19 in Management Studies: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-28, March.
    8. Pham Thi, Thuy Dung & Do, Hai Dung & Paramaiah, Ch & Duong, Nam Tien & Pham, Van Kien & Shamansurova, Zilola, 2023. "Sustainable economic performance and natural resource price volatility in the post-covid-pandemic: Evidence using GARCH models in Chinese context," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    coronavirus disease (COVID-19); strategies; forecasting; sustainable development; post-coronavirus scenarios; SARIMA; input-output analysis; development programmes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O39 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Other

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