IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i10p3962-d1391127.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Future Probability of Winter Wheat and Maize Yield Failure in Hungary Based on Long-Term Temporal Patterns

Author

Listed:
  • László Huzsvai

    (Institute of Statistics and Methodology, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi 138, H-4032 Debrecen, Hungary)

  • Csaba Juhász

    (Institute of Land Use, Engineering and Precision Farming Technology, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, and Environmental Management, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi 138, H-4032 Debrecen, Hungary)

  • Loujaine Seddik

    (Doctoral School of Plant Sciences, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Páter Károly 1, H-2100 Gödöllő, Hungary)

  • Györgyi Kovács

    (Research Institute of Karcag, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Kisújszállási 166, H-5300 Karcag, Hungary)

  • József Zsembeli

    (Research Institute of Karcag, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Kisújszállási 166, H-5300 Karcag, Hungary)

Abstract

The level of yield variation of primary crops has a considerable effect on the vulnerability of agriculture. The main factor that makes the agriculture of Hungary so vulnerable is climate change, and technological development cannot compensate for its unfavourable effects. We examined the yield failures of the two major field crops grown in Hungary that occurred during the last 100 years. The goals of our study were to determine how often yield losses at 15% and 30% occur, what their probability is and whether the probability has changed in recent decades. The Wald–Wolfowitz runs test was used to determine the randomness of yield failures. A series of yield failures for maize and winter wheat were found to be random. Based on the data for 1985–2023, failure by 15% and 30% can be expected approximately every 8th and 19th year for winter wheat and 3rd and 5th year for maize. Winter wheat yield failure at 15% shows a decreasing trend in occurrence, while at 30% it increases. On the other hand, the frequency of maize yield failure increased at both levels. The consideration of historical yield data can help to determine the extent of crop loss to be expected in the long term to maintain sustainable winter wheat and maize production in our changing climate.

Suggested Citation

  • László Huzsvai & Csaba Juhász & Loujaine Seddik & Györgyi Kovács & József Zsembeli, 2024. "The Future Probability of Winter Wheat and Maize Yield Failure in Hungary Based on Long-Term Temporal Patterns," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-17, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:10:p:3962-:d:1391127
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/10/3962/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/10/3962/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuhe Ji & Guangsheng Zhou & Lixia Wang & Shudong Wang & Zongshan Li, 2019. "Identifying climate risk causing maize (Zea mays L.) yield fluctuation by time-series data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1213-1222, April.
    2. Stavros Kalogiannidis & Christina-Ioanna Papadopoulou & Efstratios Loizou & Fotios Chatzitheodoridis, 2023. "Risk, Vulnerability, and Resilience in Agriculture and Their Impact on Sustainable Rural Economy Development: A Case Study of Greece," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, June.
    3. Fatine Eddoughri & Fatima Zohra Lkammarte & Moussa El Jarroudi & Rachid Lahlali & Ahmed Karmaoui & Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza & Mohammed Messouli, 2022. "Analysis of the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate and Anthropogenic Impacts in the Beni Mellal-Khénifra Region, Morocco," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ye Yuan & Ming Li & Congshan Tian & Yun Xu, 2023. "Measurements and Influencing Factors of New Rural Collective Economies’ Resilience toward Mountain Disasters in Indigent Areas: A Case Study of Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-22, November.
    2. Lukas Folkens & Daniel Bachmann & Petra Schneider, 2023. "Driving Forces and Socio-Economic Impacts of Low-Flow Events in Central Europe: A Literature Review Using DPSIR Criteria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-24, July.
    3. Junjun Cao & Guoyong Leng & Peng Yang & Qingbo Zhou & Wenbin Wu, 2022. "Variability in Crop Response to Spatiotemporal Variation in Climate in China, 1980–2014," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-13, July.
    4. Oratilwe Penwell Mokoena & Thembelihle Sam Ntuli & Tshepo Ramarumo & Solly Matshonisa Seeletse, 2023. "Sustainability of Rural Small-Scale Farmers Using a Thematic Content-Fed Analytic Hierarchy Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-22, August.
    5. Dimitrios Kalfas & Stavros Kalogiannidis & Olympia Papaevangelou & Katerina Melfou & Fotios Chatzitheodoridis, 2024. "Integration of Technology in Agricultural Practices towards Agricultural Sustainability: A Case Study of Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-24, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:10:p:3962-:d:1391127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.