IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i4p3632-d1070440.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Carbon Pricing in Current Global Institutional Changes

Author

Listed:
  • Liudmila Reshetnikova

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Tyumen, 6 Volodarskogo St., 625003 Tyumen, Russia)

  • Natalia Boldyreva

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Tyumen, 6 Volodarskogo St., 625003 Tyumen, Russia)

  • Anton Devyatkov

    (Department of Fundamental Mathematics and Mechanics, University of Tyumen, 6 Volodarskogo St., 625003 Tyumen, Russia)

  • Zhanna Pisarenko

    (Department of Risk Management and Insurance, St Petersburg University, 7/9, Universitetskaya Emb., 199034 St Petersburg, Russia)

  • Danila Ovechkin

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Tyumen, 6 Volodarskogo St., 625003 Tyumen, Russia)

Abstract

Global institutional changes (GICs), having influenced energy prices, led to a steady upward trend in carbon prices on the EU ETS. The aim of the article is to assess the changes in the relationship between carbon prices and energy prices under GICs. The Bai–Perron tests for structural breaks identified two dates as the breakpoint, 21 April 2016 and 21 September 2020. We test the hypothesis that powerful external factors (GIC) are changing the trend pattern of the carbon price time series. New pricing rules of the carbon price are being formed after the breakpoint. We use daily observations from 4 January 2010 to 1 September 2022. We use GARCH models with multiple stationary time series to discover a relationship energy price with the carbon price before and after the break points. We found that three models for two breakpoints better describe the relationship between carbon prices and energy prices than two models for one breakpoint, much less one model for the entire period. We find that the carbon price depends on energy prices, especially on the price of oil, in a statistically significant way, but the gas price is not statistically significant after 21 September 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Liudmila Reshetnikova & Natalia Boldyreva & Anton Devyatkov & Zhanna Pisarenko & Danila Ovechkin, 2023. "Carbon Pricing in Current Global Institutional Changes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:4:p:3632-:d:1070440
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/4/3632/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/4/3632/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Chune Young Chung & Minkyu Jeong & Jason Young, 2018. "The Price Determinants of the EU Allowance in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, November.
    3. Chevallier, Julien, 2009. "Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors: A view from the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 614-625, July.
    4. Hintermann, Beat, 2010. "Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4222 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1804-1814, June.
    7. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2020. "How connected is the carbon market to energy and financial markets? A systematic analysis of spillovers and dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Creti, Anna & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 327-334.
    9. Zhu, Bangzhu & Ye, Shunxin & Han, Dong & Wang, Ping & He, Kaijian & Wei, Yi-Ming & Xie, Rui, 2019. "A multiscale analysis for carbon price drivers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 202-216.
    10. Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
    11. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro & Sikora, Iryna, 2022. "The determinants of CO2 prices in the EU emission trading system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    12. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    13. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    14. Zhu Bangzhu & Julien Chevallier, 2017. "Pricing and Forecasting Carbon Markets: Models and Empirical Analyses," Post-Print hal-02879366, HAL.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4210 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Gong, Xu & Shi, Rong & Xu, Jun & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Analyzing spillover effects between carbon and fossil energy markets from a time-varying perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    17. Bangzhu Zhu & Julien Chevallier, 2017. "Pricing and Forecasting Carbon Markets," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-57618-3, December.
    18. Yuli Shan & Jiamin Ou & Daoping Wang & Zhao Zeng & Shaohui Zhang & Dabo Guan & Klaus Hubacek, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 and fiscal stimuli on global emissions and the Paris Agreement," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 200-206, March.
    19. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Shi, Yukun & Mishra, Tapas & Yan, Cheng, 2021. "The marginal impacts of energy prices on carbon price variations: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    20. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    21. Dieter Helm, 2020. "The Environmental Impacts of the Coronavirus," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(1), pages 21-38, May.
    22. Jan Abrell & Anta Ndoye Faye & Georg Zachmann, 2011. "Assessing the impact of the EU ETS using firm level data," Working Papers of BETA 2011-15, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    23. Spanjer, Aldo, 2007. "Russian gas price reform and the EU-Russia gas relationship: Incentives, consequences and European security of supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2889-2898, May.
    24. Hulshof, Daan & van der Maat, Jan-Pieter & Mulder, Machiel, 2016. "Market fundamentals, competition and natural-gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 480-491.
    25. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    26. Mengrui Zhu & Hua Xu & Xingyu Gao & Minggang Wang & André L. M. Vilela & Lixin Tian, 2022. "Identification of Breakpoints in Carbon Market Based on Probability Density Recurrence Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-18, July.
    27. Finon, Dominique & Locatelli, Catherine, 2008. "Russian and European gas interdependence: Could contractual trade channel geopolitics?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 423-442, January.
    28. Stern, Jonathan, 2014. "International gas pricing in Europe and Asia: A crisis of fundamentals," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 43-48.
    29. Aatola, Piia & Ollikainen, Markku & Toppinen, Anne, 2013. "Price determination in the EU ETS market: Theory and econometric analysis with market fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 380-395.
    30. Gao, Yuning & Li, Meng & Xue, Jinjun & Liu, Yu, 2020. "Evaluation of effectiveness of China's carbon emissions trading scheme in carbon mitigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    31. Alexey Cherepovitsyn & Victoria Solovyova, 2022. "Prospects for the Development of the Russian Rare-Earth Metal Industry in View of the Global Energy Transition—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-24, January.
    32. Chi-Kong Chyong, 2015. "Markets and long-term contracts: The case of Russian gas supplies to Europe," Working Papers EPRG 1524, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    33. Junjun Jia & Huaqing Wu & Xiaoxuan Zhu & Jingwei Li & Ying Fan, 2020. "Price Break Points and Impact Process Evaluation in the EU ETS," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(8), pages 1691-1714, June.
    34. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Wenyang & Wang, Huiwen & Wei, Yigang, 2023. "Identifying the determinants of European carbon allowances prices: A novel robust partial least squares method for open-high-low-close data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Rujie Liu & Wei He & Hongwei Dong & Tao Han & Yuting Yang & Hongwei Yu & Zhu Li, 2024. "Application of Dynamic Weight Mixture Model Based on Dual Sliding Windows in Carbon Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-18, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cristiano Salvagnin & Aldo Glielmo & Maria Elena De Giuli & Antonietta Mira, 2024. "Investigating the price determinants of the European Emission Trading System: a non-parametric approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(10), pages 1529-1544, October.
    2. Batten, Jonathan A. & Maddox, Grace E. & Young, Martin R., 2021. "Does weather, or energy prices, affect carbon prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    3. Huang, Wenyang & Wang, Huiwen & Wei, Yigang, 2023. "Identifying the determinants of European carbon allowances prices: A novel robust partial least squares method for open-high-low-close data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    5. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon dioxide emission allowance prices: A review and comparison of modern volatility models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 692-704.
    6. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro & Sikora, Iryna, 2022. "The determinants of CO2 prices in the EU emission trading system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    7. Huang, Wenyang & Zhao, Jianyu & Wang, Xiaokang, 2024. "Model-driven multimodal LSTM-CNN for unbiased structural forecasting of European Union allowances open-high-low-close price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Alexander Zeitlberger & Alexander Brauneis, 2016. "Modeling carbon spot and futures price returns with GARCH and Markov switching GARCH models," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(1), pages 149-176, March.
    9. Remes, Piia, 2013. "Putting a Price on Carbon – Econometric Essays on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and its Impacts," Research Reports 62, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Su, Chi Wei & Wei, Shenkai & Wang, Yan & Tao, Ran, 2024. "How does climate policy uncertainty affect the carbon market?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    11. Gavard, Claire & Kirat, Djamel, 2018. "Flexibility in the market for international carbon credits and price dynamics difference with European allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 504-518.
    12. Huang, Wenyang & Wang, Huiwen & Qin, Haotong & Wei, Yigang & Chevallier, Julien, 2022. "Convolutional neural network forecasting of European Union allowances futures using a novel unconstrained transformation method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    13. Xu, Jia & Tan, Xiujie & He, Gang & Liu, Yu, 2019. "Disentangling the drivers of carbon prices in China's ETS pilots — An EEMD approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-9.
    14. Aatola, Piia, 2013. "Putting a Price on Carbon – Econometric Essays on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and its Impacts," Research Reports P62, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Cretí, Anna & Joëts, Marc, 2017. "Multiple bubbles in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 119-130.
    16. Chen, Zhang-HangJian & Zhao, Shou-Yu & Song, Huai-Bing & Yang, Ming-Yuan & Li, Sai-Ping, 2024. "Dynamic volatility spillover relationships between the Chinese carbon and international energy markets from extreme climate shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 626-645.
    17. Joao Leitao & Joaquim Ferreira & Ernesto Santibanez‐Gonzalez, 2021. "Green bonds, sustainable development and environmental policy in the European Union carbon market," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 2077-2090, May.
    18. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Shi, Yukun & Mishra, Tapas & Yan, Cheng, 2021. "The marginal impacts of energy prices on carbon price variations: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    19. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    20. Tan, Xue-Ping & Wang, Xin-Yu, 2017. "Dependence changes between the carbon price and its fundamentals: A quantile regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 306-325.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:4:p:3632-:d:1070440. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.