Urban Sprawl Patterns, Drivers, and Impacts: The Case of Mogadishu, Somalia Using Geo-Spatial and SEM Analyses

There is a lack of research on urban sprawl in developing countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, undergoing significant demographic change. There is an urgent need to conduct more studies on African cities and investigate spatial variations in urban sprawl to fill a knowledge gap in Sub-Saharan Countries (SSC). There have been no studies of urban sprawl in the Somali capital of Mogadishu, a fragile metropolis struggling with the legacy of decades of civil war. This study has two main objectives: (i) to examine sprawl patterns in Mogadishu, Somalia; and (ii) to identify the drivers and impacts of urban sprawl in Mogadishu, Somalia. The study used spatiotemporal imagery from 2006, 2013, and 2021 to identify sprawl patterns. A quantitative method in the form of a cross-sectional survey with 265 participants was then used to identify the drivers and impacts of sprawl, which was then analysed using the structural equation model (SEM). The spatiotemporal analysis results showed sprawl patterns in nine districts and three settlements, mainly scattered and leapfrog patterns. The SEM discovered five significant drivers: low price of land and dwelling (LP), development of transportation infrastructure (DTI), rising income, security reasons, and low commute cost (LCC), in addition to eight significant impacts: less social interaction (LSI), agriculture land and natural habitat loss (AGL NHL), unsafe environment (USE), insufficient health and educational services (IHF IEF), high public services cost (HPSC), insufficient public transport (IPT), less physical activity (LPA), pollution (POL) and mental health issues (MH). Undoubtedly, the impacts found in the study proved that urban sprawl negatively impacted the residents and environment of Mogadishu, which will continue as the security situation in the city improves and more residents are attracted.