IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jgeogr/v3y2023i3p25-498d1206836.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying Who Will Be Affected by Shifting Climate Zones

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew G. O. Malone

    (Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL 60607, USA)

Abstract

Climate change is altering the conditions to which communities have adapted. The Köppen–Geiger classification system can provide a compact metric to identify regions with notable changes in climatic conditions. Shifting Köppen–Geiger climate zones will be especially impactful in regions with large populations. This study uses high-resolution datasets on Köppen–Geiger climate zones and populations to quantify the number of people affected by shifting climate zones (i.e., population exposure to shifting climate zones). By the end of this century, 9–15% of the Earth’s land surface is projected to shift its climate zone. These shifts could affect 1.3–1.6 billion people (14–21% of the global population). Many of the affected people live in areas that were classified as temperate in the historical period. These areas are projected to be classified as tropical or arid in the future. This study presents a new metric for exposure to climate change: the number of people living in areas whose climate zone classification is projected to shift. It also identifies populations that may face climatic conditions in the future that deviate from those to which they have adapted.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew G. O. Malone, 2023. "Quantifying Who Will Be Affected by Shifting Climate Zones," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jgeogr:v:3:y:2023:i:3:p:25-498:d:1206836
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7086/3/3/25/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7086/3/3/25/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barbara Neumann & Athanasios T Vafeidis & Juliane Zimmermann & Robert J Nicholls, 2015. "Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-34, March.
    2. Bryan Jones & Claudia Tebaldi & Brian C. O’Neill & Keith Oleson & Jing Gao, 2018. "Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: demographic change vs climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 423-437, February.
    3. Samuel Bartusek & Kai Kornhuber & Mingfang Ting, 2022. "2021 North American heatwave amplified by climate change-driven nonlinear interactions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(12), pages 1143-1150, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lena Reimann & Bryan Jones & Nora Bieker & Claudia Wolff & Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2023. "Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Anirban Mukhopadhyay & Sugata Hazra & Debasish Mitra & C. Hutton & Abhra Chanda & Sandip Mukherjee, 2016. "Characterizing the multi-risk with respect to plausible natural hazards in the Balasore coast, Odisha, India: a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) appraisal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1495-1513, February.
    3. Domingues, Rita & Costas, Susana & Jesus, Saul & Ferreira, Óscar, 2017. "SENSE OF PLACE, RISK PERCEPTIONS AND PREPAREDNESS OF A COASTAL POPULATION AT RISK (Faro Beach, Portugal): A qualitative content analysis," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 5(3), pages 163-175.
    4. Zhibin Yang & Robert Stachler & Joshua S. Heyne, 2020. "Orthogonal Reference Surrogate Fuels for Operability Testing," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-13, April.
    5. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Maria Fabrizia Clemente, 2022. "The Future Impacts of ESL Events in Euro-Mediterranean Coastal Cities: The Coast-RiskBySea Model to Assess the Potential Economic Damages in Naples, Marseille and Barcelona," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-22, August.
    7. Xing Zhang & Tianjun Zhou & Wenxia Zhang & Liwen Ren & Jie Jiang & Shuai Hu & Meng Zuo & Lixia Zhang & Wenmin Man, 2023. "Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Tian Liu & Peijun Shi & Jian Fang, 2022. "Spatiotemporal variation in global floods with different affected areas and the contribution of influencing factors to flood-induced mortality (1985–2019)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2601-2625, April.
    9. Paul A. Sandifer & Alexander S. Braud & Landon C. Knapp & Judith Taylor, 2021. "Is Living in a U.S. Coastal City Good for One’s Health?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-24, August.
    10. Rebecca Jo Stormes Newman & Claudia Capitani & Colin Courtney-Mustaphi & Jessica Paula Rose Thorn & Rebecca Kariuki & Charis Enns & Robert Marchant, 2020. "Integrating Insights from Social-Ecological Interactions into Sustainable Land Use Change Scenarios for Small Islands in the Western Indian Ocean," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-22, February.
    11. Martins Fernando L.C. & Giordano Fabio & Barrella Walter, 2021. "Socio-Environmental Vulnerability of Water in the Estuary of the Metropolitan Region of Santos (Brazil)," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 40(4), pages 113-125, December.
    12. Avit K. Bhowmik & Rajchandar Padmanaban & Pedro Cabral & Maria M. Romeiras, 2022. "Global Mangrove Deforestation and Its Interacting Social-Ecological Drivers: A Systematic Review and Synthesis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, April.
    13. Sanchayan Nath & Frank van Laerhoven & Peter P. J. Driessen, 2019. "Have Bangladesh’s Polders Decreased Livelihood Vulnerability? A Comparative Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    14. Leonid Sorokin & Gérard Mondello, 2015. "Sea Level Rise, Radical Uncertainties and Decision-Maker’s Liability: The European Coastal Airports Case," Working Papers hal-01251476, HAL.
    15. Laura Bakkensen & Quynh Nguyen & Toan Phan & Paul Schuler, 2023. "Charting the Course: How Does Information about Sea Level Rise Affect the Willingness to Migrate?," Working Paper 23-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    16. Sarah F. W. Taylor & Michael J. Roberts & Ben Milligan & Ronney Ncwadi, 2019. "Measurement and implications of marine food security in the Western Indian Ocean: an impending crisis?," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1395-1415, December.
    17. R. Dean Hardy & Bryan L. Nuse, 2016. "Global sea-level rise: weighing country responsibility and risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 333-345, August.
    18. Kevin C. Hanegan & Duncan M. FitzGerald & Ioannis Y. Georgiou & Zoe J. Hughes, 2023. "Long-term sea level rise modeling of a basin-tidal inlet system reveals sediment sinks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Caitlin Dalla Pria & Fiona Cawkwell & Stephen Newton & Paul Holloway, 2022. "City Living: Nest-Site Selection Preferences in Urban Herring Gulls, Larus argentatus," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-12, March.
    20. Fangjin Xu & Qingxu Huang & Huanbi Yue & Xingyun Feng & Haoran Xu & Chunyang He & Peng Yin & Brett A. Bryan, 2023. "The challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jgeogr:v:3:y:2023:i:3:p:25-498:d:1206836. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.