IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i11p4090-d830279.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Crude Oil Price Shocks and European Stock Markets during the COVID-19 Period

Author

Listed:
  • Ioannis Katsampoxakis

    (Department of Statistics and Actuarial—Financial Mathematics, University of the Aegean, 83200 Samos, Greece)

  • Apostolos Christopoulos

    (Department of Business Administration, University of the Aegean, 82100 Chios, Greece
    School of Business, Hellenic Open University, 26335 Patra, Greece)

  • Petros Kalantonis

    (School of Business, Hellenic Open University, 26335 Patra, Greece
    Department of Tourism Management, University of West Attica, 12244 Athens, Greece)

  • Vasileios Nastas

    (School of Applied Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Technical University of Athens, 15780 Athens, Greece)

Abstract

This paper investigates the interrelations between stock returns and crude oil prices for European oil-importing/exporting countries. A vector autoregression (VAR) model is applied to estimate the significance of stock market responses to changes in oil prices during the pandemic period 2019–2021. A Granger causality test is applied to find the direction and the intensity of the relation between crude oil and the indices of the European stock markets. The findings of this paper hold with or without the COVID-19 pandemic episode and reveal the interaction between the European stock markets and the crude oil prices. The results indicate that in steady periods, before the COVID-19 outbreak and after the announcement of vaccinations, there is no interdependence between crude oil and stock prices, whereas in high volatility periods, the causality from stock markets to oil prices increases and both oil-exporting and -importing countries are equally influenced. These findings have implications both for investors and fund managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ioannis Katsampoxakis & Apostolos Christopoulos & Petros Kalantonis & Vasileios Nastas, 2022. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and European Stock Markets during the COVID-19 Period," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-14, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:11:p:4090-:d:830279
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/11/4090/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/11/4090/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    2. Javid Elkhan Suleymanli & Etimad Munasib Rahimli & Nurkhodzha Nazirkhodzha Akbulaev, 2020. "The Causality Analysis of the Effect of Oil and Natural Gas Prices on Ukraine Stock Index," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 108-114.
    3. Yijin He & Tadahiro Nakajima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2019. "Connectedness Between Natural Gas Price and BRICS Exchange Rates: Evidence from Time and Frequency Domains," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-28, October.
    4. Kumar, Suresh & Choudhary, Sangita & Singh, Gurcharan & Singhal, Shelly, 2021. "Crude oil, gold, natural gas, exchange rate and indian stock market: Evidence from the asymmetric nonlinear ARDL model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Vijay Victor & Dibin K K & Meenu Bhaskar & Farheen Naz, 2021. "Investigating the Dynamic Interlinkages between Exchange Rates and the NSE NIFTY Index," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, January.
    6. Xie He & Tetsuya Takiguchi & Tadahiro Nakajima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Spillover effects between energies, gold, and stock: the United States versus China," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(8), pages 1416-1447, December.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    8. Qiang Ji & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Muhammad Tahir Suleman, 2020. "Dynamic structural impacts of oil shocks on exchange rates: lessons to learn," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.
    9. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2018. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 264-280.
    10. Lin, Ling & Zhou, Zhongbao & Liu, Qing & Jiang, Yong, 2019. "Risk transmission between natural gas market and stock markets: portfolio and hedging strategy analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 245-254.
    11. Goodell, John W., 2020. "COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    12. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Spillovers between natural gas, gasoline, oil, and stock markets: Evidence from MENA countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yousaf, Imran & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Alshater, Muneer M. & Bouri, Elie & Li, Yanshuang, 2023. "Multidimensional connectedness among the volatility of global financial markets around the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Li, Dongxin & Zhang, Feipeng & Yuan, Di & Cai, Yuan, 2024. "Does COVID-19 impact the dependence between oil and stock markets? Evidence from RCEP countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 909-939.
    3. Hanif, Waqas & Andraz, Jorge Miguel & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2024. "Are REITS hedge or safe haven against oil price fall?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1-16.
    4. Andreas Errikos Delegkos & Michalis Skordoulis & Petros Kalantonis & Aggelia Xanthopoulou, 2022. "Integrated Reporting and Value Relevance in the Energy Sector: The Case of European Listed Firms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-13, November.
    5. Charalampos Basdekis & Apostolos Christopoulos & Ioannis Katsampoxakis & Vasileios Nastas, 2022. "The Impact of the Ukrainian War on Stock and Energy Markets: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-15, November.
    6. Elias Carayannis & Pantelis Kostis & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel, 2022. "Balanced-Scorecard-Based Evaluation of Knowledge-Oriented Competencies of Distributed Energy Investments," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-23, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nurkhodzha Akbulaev & Elshan Mammadli & Gadir Bayramli, 2022. "The Effect of Energy Prices on Stock Indices in the Period of COVID-19: Evidence from Russia, Turkey, Brazil, and India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 262-269, May.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
    3. Andersson, Björn, 1999. "On the Causality Between Saving and Growth: Long- and Short-Run Dynamics and Country Heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 1999:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    4. Özgür Özaydın* & H. Alper Güzel, 2019. "Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Business, Management and Economics Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(6), pages 77-85, 06-2019.
    5. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2019. "Does money have a role in the inflation process? Evidence from Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 113-129, June.
    6. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    8. Allison Zhou & Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 2007. "Modeling the supply and demand for tourism: a fully identified VECM approach," Working Papers 200717, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    9. Barnett, William A. & Ghosh, Taniya & Adil, Masudul Hasan, 2022. "Is money demand really unstable? Evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 606-622.
    10. Arvanitopoulos, T. & Agnolucci, P., 2020. "The long-term effect of renewable electricity on employment in the United Kingdom," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2012. "The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 498-516.
    12. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    13. Chen, George S. & Yao, Yao & Malizard, Julien, 2017. "Does foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out private domestic investment in China? The effect of entry mode," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-419.
    14. de Wet, Albertus H. & van Eyden, Reneé & Gupta, Rangan, 2009. "Linking global economic dynamics to a South African-specific credit risk correlation model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1000-1011, September.
    15. Mukerji, S., 1995. "A theory of play for games in strategic form when rationality is not common knowledge," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9519, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    16. Qizilbash, M., 1994. "Corruption, temptation and guilt: moral character in economic theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9419, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    17. Ulph, A. & Valentini, L., 1998. "Is environmental dumping greater when firms are footloose?," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9819, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    18. Hall, Stephen & Mizon, Grayham E. & Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modelling economies in transition: an introduction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 339-357, August.
    19. Federici, Andrea, 2018. "Il rapporto tra capitale pubblico e altre variabili macroeconomiche: un'applicazione empirica [The relationship between public capital and other macroeconomic variables: an empirical application]," MPRA Paper 88516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2011. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures oil prices: Evidence from quantile cointegrating regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 924-935, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:11:p:4090-:d:830279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.